Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC 100

Enough is enough.

For a guy who is looking to make a career out of his knowledge and insights into the world of Mixed Martial Arts, my record in the predictions department is pretty shoddy. Before leaving The Love of Sports to setup Keyboard Kimura two months ago, I was on fire, clicking at nearly 75% with my picks.

Now, I'm two wins above .500, barely breaking even and looking like I'm simply flipping a coin from fight to fight. But that all changes tonight, as UFC 100 will be my coming out party as a prognosticator ... I hope.

Yoshihiro Akiyama (12-1-0, 2 NC) vs. Alan Belcher (13-4)
Normally, as the week leading up to a fight progresses, I continue to scrutinize the fights and waver in my thought process of how a bout will go down. That isn't the case here. I still contend that this is a showcase fight for the UFC's latest Japanese acquisition, a means to further their presence in the Pacific Rim and build another challenger in the Middleweight division.

Not that Belcher doesn't have a chance; he's a quality fighter who has surprised in the past and we all know that anything can happen once the cage door closes. That being said, it's going to take an Akiyama mistake or Belcher catching him with something unexpected for the UFC (and me) not to get the result they're looking for.

Dan Henderson (24-7) vs. Michael Bisping (18-1)
The simple fact of the matter is this: Bisping has never faced anyone remotely as skilled and complete as Dan Henderson. Everything in the history of his career points to him coming out on the losing end of this fight. His one loss is to a wrestler (Rashad Evans) and Matt Hammil, another wrestler, threw him around the cage only to end up on the wrong side of a very bad decision.

So why do I still have those lingering thoughts about Bisping having his hand raised at the end of the fight, with a ticket to a Middleweight title shot at UFC 105 in London ready to be punched?

Hendo has spent more time standing up since returning from Pride, but he's a savvy old vet and I would expect that it will only take a couple stiff jabs to the dome for him to realize that this fight needs to take place on the ground for him to win.

Jon Fitch (22-3-1) vs. Paulo Thiago (11-0)
Not for a minute have I thought anything different than my initial reaction to this fight announcement: Jon Fitch is going to bludgeon this guy.

Thiago was taking shot after shot against Koscheck before landing a serious uppercut and ending the fight, and there is no way that Jon Fitch and his iron jaw are going to be caught out in the same way.

Georges St-Pierre (18-2) vs. Thiago Alves (22-4)
Normally, the anticipation and build-up to a fight gets way to much and I start to lose interest in the fight itself. It's like looking forward to Christmas for the entire month of December only to be over it by Christmas Eve.

Not the case here. No amount of hype can take away from how much I am dying see this fight. Alves is the most unique challenge for GSP to date and I'm a sucker for seeing what kind of gameplan Greg Jackson puts together for his fighters in situations like this.

What makes this even more anticipated for me is that I think it has the possibility to still be a catalyst for bigger and better things for Alves even if he loses. A strong performance in defeat against one of the best in the world is nothing to hang your head about and great fighters always get better after that first big loss.

Brock Lesnar (3-1) vs. Frank Mir (12-3)
Then there is this bad boy! I don't think I've looked forward to a fight as much as I am looking forward to this one ever.

Being that I am a proud supporter of Brock Lesnar, a win here would serve as not only validation of Lesnar's place atop the heavyweight division, but also as proof of my belief that he is the next evolution in the sport.

That being said, Mir can cement his legacy as a great heavyweight with a second win over Lesnar, reaching that upper echelon of fighters everyone believed he was destined for before the motorcycle accident interrupted his career.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 36-34 (I don't want to talk about it...)

Preliminary Card
Shannon Gugerty over Matt Grice (Round 2, Submission)

CB Dolloway over Tom Lawlor (Round 1, Submission)

TJ Grant over Dong Hyun Kim (Split Decision)

Jon Jones over Jake O'Brien (Unanimous Decision)

Jim Miller over Mac Danzig (Round 2, Submission)

Stephan Bonnar over Mark Coleman (Round 2, Submission)

Main Card

Yoshihiro Akiyama over Alan Belcher (Round 1, Submission)
Dan Henderson over Michael Bisping (Unanimous Decision)

Jon Fitch over Paulo Thiago (Round 1, TKO)

Georges St-Pierre over Thiago Alves (Round 4, TKO)

And in the Main Event of the evening...

Brock Lesnar over Frank Mir via TKO due to strikes, Round 1.

Now touch gloves and come out swingin'...

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The UFC 100: Royce Gracie

To me, it's only fitting that we mark the UFC's pseudo-centennial (this is really UFC 105, but who's counting?) by honoring the winner of the initial UFC and the greatest fighter in the history of the company, Royce Gracie.

No man dominated the sport quite like Gracie in those early years, and outside of his inability to continue in UFC 3 that earned him his first "loss," Gracie is 11-1-1 in the UFC, his lone loss coming to Matt Hughes.

Of course, that brings up the question of why Hughes did not top Gracie in the rankings the same way he did inside the Octagon? For me, Gracie was too far removed from his prime for this to be a monumental victory for Hughes. It was a solid win and another notch in the impressive belt of Matt Hughes, but it was the equivalent of beating up Ken Shamrock during the last five years.

What cememted Gracie in the #1 spot on this list was when he displayed his dominance. While Hughes, Liddell, Couture and others have succeed with unified rules and structured weight classes, Gracie excelled without those things.

He beat everyone when you could do almost anything to beat your opponent and having an immense weight advantage was just another potential weapon. In all of his initial UFC fights, Gracie was outweighed by at least 10 pound. He was a welterweight taking on everyone from middleweight to heavyweight and making each and every one of them tap.

There is also his pioneering of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu inside the Octagon that comes into play. Gracie introduced BJJ to the world, fighting off his back and cinching in submissions every time he entered the cage. He introduced one of the first wrinkles to the notion of fighting and everyone rushed out to learn how to use and combat Gracie's ground dominance.

In my mind, there is no question that Royce Gracie is the greatest fighter in UFC history.






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FWP: Lesnar vs. Mir II

I'm jacked up for a lot of fights on this card, but honestly, this is the mother of all fights for me.

Why?

Rematches are almost always awesome and if things go the way that I hope, Frank Mir will be laying in a smashed up heap on the floor when the final bell sounds.

Brock Lesnar (3-1) vs. Frank Mir (12-3)

Let's get this out of the way right up front: Mir beat Lesnar the first time around and I will give him all the credit in the world for making the genetic freak tap. Furthermore, he followed that up by being the first guy to put Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira on his ass to earn half of the UFC Heavyweight title.

Now that that is over with, Lesnar is a human monster that possesses the strength to shatter orbital bones with one punch (see Herring, Heath) and the ability to take punches from one of the best ever (see Couture, Randy) without really flinching.

The battle here is clearly going to be Mir's ability to utilize his jiu jitsu against a bigger, stronger, faster opponent in Lesnar. Yes, he's done it before, but some would say Steve Mazzagatti and Lesnar's inexperience had something to do with it.

Standing and trading with Lesnar isn't really an option, in my opinion, just because he's massive, has shown he can take a punch and the whole shattered Heath Herring's orbital bone thing I mentioned before. Did I mention he's massive?

To me, Lesnar is the next evolution in Mixed Martial Arts, a heavyweight equivalent to Georges St-Pierre in terms of freakish athleticism. Remember when GSP was just the better athlete than everyone and got by on that and improving talents? That is Lesnar right now. Mark my words.

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The UFC 100: The Best of The Best

Were finally here - the final ten fighters in our countdown of the Greatest Fighters in the History of the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

With this final collection of fighters, we'll reach the conclusion of a very exhaustive process that has been awesome to put together and extremely fun to roll out to you on a daily basis over the last week and change. Now comes the fun stuff.

There are 100 fighters on this list in 100 different places, which means I have surely made a mistake in your mind somewhere along the line. I've already heard from one BJ Penn fan about the horrible error I made of placing Penn at #12 yesterday and now I want to hear from you.

Who is your Top 5? Your Top 10? Who did I miss? Let me know and let the debates begin!

10. Don Frye
UFC Record: 9-1
Victories Over: Gary Goodridge (twice), Tank Abbott

His only loss came to Mark Coleman back when he was "The Hammer" and not the "confused old man" Joe Rogan so aptly described him as last we saw him in the cage. Besides winning the UFC 6 and Ultimate Ultimate '96 tournaments, "The Predator" was one of the very first to incorporate multiple disciplines into his fighting.

9. Dan Severn
UFC Record: 9-3
Victories Over: Oleg Taktarov, Ken Shamrock

Severn was ever bit "The Beast" when he errupted on the UFC en route to being the UFC 5 tournament winner and a two-time Superfight champion. When your three losses inside the Octagon are to guys we still haven't mentioned, you know you were something special.

8. Ken Shamrock
UFC Record: 7-6-2
Victories Over: Kimo Leopoldo (twice), Dan Severn

His record diminishes his impact in the UFC and really, his six losses are to Royce Gracie, Dan Severn and Tito Ortiz, so it's not like he got dropped by slouches or anything either. There is also the two Superfight wins and being the first real crossover star to emerge from the UFC.

7. Georges St-Pierre
UFC Record: 12-2
Victories Over: BJ Penn (twice), Matt Hughes (twice), Jon Fitch

I can't even blame the Matt Serra loss for GSP only being #7. Dude is outstanding, but the guys who remain are even better. Two welterweight title reigns are impressive, but it's his evolution throughout the years into the most complete athlete and fighter the UFC has ever seen that truly stands out with Georges St-Pierre.

6. Tito Ortiz
UFC Record: 14-6-1
Victories Over: Ken Shamrock (thrice), Wanderlei Silva, Forrest Griffin

"The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" was the poster child of the UFC (with Chuck Liddell) back when the only people who cared were Dana White and those of us reading this list. Ortiz made five title defenses as the Light Heavyweight champ and absolutely steamrolled Wanderlei Silva before he ever had a belt around his waist. If only things didn't go so wrong with Dana, we'd still have Tito around keep us entertained / annoyed.

5. Anderson Silva
UFC Record: 9-0
Victories Over: Rich Franklin (twice), Dan Henderson, Nate Marquardt

Undefeated and unchallenged. Those are the two best words to describe "The Spider" and his performances inside the Octagon. If he destroys Forrest Griffin the way he has destroyed so many before him, I might have to create an ammendment to this list after UFC 101.

4. Randy Couture
UFC Record: 13-6
Victories Over: Chuck Liddell, Tim Sylvia, Vitor Belfort

You can't knock a guy who has twice held the heavyweight and light heavyweight titles. By the way, he won that first title at age 37, when most fighters are ready to hang'em up. He smashed Vitor Belfort when Vitor Belfort was smashing everyone else (included Couture himself), he outpunched Chuck Liddell when Chuck Liddell was outpunching everyone else (including Couture himself, twice...) and well, he's "The Natural" and there is nothing more to say.

3. Chuck Liddell
UFC Record: 16-6
Victories Over: Randy Couture (twice), Tito Ortiz, Wanderlei Silva

Four losses in his last five fights makes the record look not as dominant as it once did, but the truth of the matter is that for a period between April 2004 and may 2007, Chuck Liddell was very much the deadliest man on the planet. He knocked out everybody and defended the Light Heavyweight title against some serious challengers. Now, it's time for "The Iceman" to ride off into the sunset.

2. Matt Hughes
UFC Record: 16-5
Victories Over: Georges St-Pierre, BJ Penn, Royce Gracie

Love him or hate him, Matt Hughes was the most dominant fighter in the world for a long, long time. He owned the welterweight division, defending his belt a total of seven times over two title reigns and beat the best of the best, literally. One of the five losses came really early to Dennis Hallman, and the others are to BJ Penn, Georges St-Pierre (twice) and Thiago Alves. Not too shabby, sir. If only that win over Gracie came sooner.

1. Royce Gracie
UFC Record: 11-2-1
Victories Over: Ken Shamrock (twice), Dan Severn, Kimo Leopoldo

Though an explanation isn't really necessary, I'll give you one tomorrow, when I give Royce Gracie the royal treatment the Greatest Fighter in the History of the UFC deserves.

With that, I'm done ... and I'm out!

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FWP: St-Pierre vs. Alves

Good lord I'm dying to see this fight and only a small part has to do with the amount of Canadian pride that swells up inside me every time GSP demolishes another contender.

Mostly, it has to do with what an intriguing match-up this fight should be, pitting Alves' dangerous striking and solid takedown defense against MMA's most complete fighter.

Enough preamble, let's get to it.

Georges St-Pierre (18-2) vs. Thiago Alves (22-4)

Throw the "Which camp is better?" angle right out the window, as Jackson's MMA (along with Firas Zahabi) and American Top Team are the 1 and 1A of Mixed Martial Arts training camps today.

Stylistically, we could be in for some fireworks, as well as some awkward moments too. As both come from outstanding camps, there is very little chance that a flash knockout is going to occur; both will be dutifully prepared for the surprises the other may have planned.

The awkward moments may come from attempted and stuffed takedowns, as well as St-Pierre's outstanding footwork when dodging Alves' attacks. I honestly believe the first round will be all about both fighters finding their range. From there on out, expect excitement as Alves looks for angles and St-Pierre looks for, well, everything, since he brings a full toolbox into every fight.

I spent a lot of time pouring over the common opponents a couple weeks back at Watch Kalib Run and I encourage you to read the article. The end result is that while GSP has better overall results - Jon Fitch beat Alves and we all know what GSP did to Fitch - I really believe Alves is a more complete and dangerous fighter now than he was against Fitch and he shouldn't be taken lightly.

Bottom line: this has all the makings of Fight of the Night, just as Henderson and Bisping before them does as well and probably more so than the Main Event of the evening.

Predictions come on Saturday.


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The UFC 100: The Teenagers

Not going to lie - I'm pretty pumped that we're coming to the end of this series.

My thinking is that since a number of people have shied away to this point, they're waiting until the Top 10 are revealed before chiming in with their thoughts and objections.

Well good people, we're getting closer, as today's installment looks at the cast of characters who make up the teenage segment of the Greatest Fighters in UFC History.

20. Mark Coleman
UFC Record: 6-4
Victories Over: Gary Goodridge, Don Frye, Dan Severn

Don't think of the Mark Coleman who fought Shogun Rua or that will be stepping into the cage all old and exhausted this weekend. Jump on YouTube and watch early Mark Coleman and you'll see why "The Hammer" resides as the elder statesmen of the teenage set. The first ever UFC Heavyweight champion brought the ground and pound formula to the cage and executed it better than anyone at the time, en route to six straight wins, the UFC 10 and 11 Tournament titles and the aforementioned heavyweight crown.

19. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson
UFC Record: 5-1
Victories Over: Chuck Liddell, Dan Henderson, Wanderlei Silva

While many other former Pride fighters have had mixed results since joining (or returning to) the UFC, Rampage has had none of that. Following his debut win, he won the Light Heavyweight title from Liddell, unified the division by beating Pride champ Dan Henderson and fought a very, very close battle with Forrest Griffin. Since then, he's gone crazy for a couple days, but returned to clobber nemesis Wanderlei Silva and grind out a win over Keith Jardine. Next up: TUF 10 and a grudge match with Rashad Evans.

18. Forrest Griffin
UFC Record: 7-3
Victories Over: Stephan Bonnar (twice), Shogun Rua, Rampage Jackson

You're damn right I have Griffin here in part because of his success as "The Original Ultimate Fighter." What keeps him here is his submission of Shogun when he was still considered the best light heavyweight in the world and his upset of Rampage for the Light Heavyweight title. And really, when your three losses are Keith Jardine, Tito Ortiz and Rashad Evans, that ain't too bad either.

17. Jens Pulver
UFC Record: 6-2-1
Victories Over: Caol Uno, Dennis Hallman, BJ Penn

The first UFC Lightweight (then Bantamweight) champion, Lil Evil has fallen on tough times recently with a string of losses that have people (myself included) wondering whether he should continue. Should he hang'em up, we can always look back on his epic first battle with BJ Penn, a fight that, for my money, should be higher up in the UFC's countdown of the 100 Greatest Fights than it is.

16. Pat Miletich
UFC Record: 8-2
Victories Over: Mikey Burnett, John Alessio

Everyone knows him as a trainer - and a damn fine one at that - but Miletich was also one hell of a fighter back in the day. "The Croatian Sensation" won the belt over Mikey Burnett at UFC Ultimate Brazil and held onto it for two and a half years, defending the strap four times before succumbing to Carlos Newton at UFC 31. I'm sure some part of Miletich enjoyed seeing future protege Matt Hughes powerbomb Newton into unconsciousness in his first defense.

15. Rich Franklin
UFC Record: 12-3
Victories Over: Wanderlei Silva, Yushin Okami, Ken Shamrock

I feel for Rich Franklin, I really do. Life was great, cruising along as the Middleweight champ, four straight wins since joining the UFC, including defeating Shamrock and Evan Tanner, preparing for a defense against Martin Kampmann and then BOOM! Kampmann blows a knee, Anderson Silva steps in and now Franklin is forever stuck in limbo, forced to make 205 his permanent home because he's 0-2 against "The Spider" and no one wants to see him get dismantled again.

14. Lyoto Machida
UFC Record: 7-0
Victories Over: Rashad Evans, Tito Ortiz, Sokoudjou

When it's all said and done, "The Dragon" could end up as the best ever. EVER. He hasn't lost a round, barely gets touched and has demolished everyone he's ever faced. And it's not like he's facing stiffs either. Now he's the Light Heavyweight champ, the catalyst for thousands of people's renewed love of karate and lined up to defend against Shogun Rua in the Fall. How long can he remain undefeated?

13. Frank Mir
UFC Record: 10-3
Victories Over: Tim Sylvia, Brock Lesnar, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

People will surely question this one, but facts are facts. Mir was dominating the division before a motorcycle accident put him on the sidelines. While he struggled initially upon his return, all he's done of late is rattle off three straight wins, including submitting the genetic freak that is Brock Lesnar and being the first person in 38 fights to KO Nogueira. Show the man some respect.

12. BJ Penn
UFC Record: 9-4-1
Victories Over: Matt Hughes, Jens Pulver, Sean Sherk

This one might make some, including Sarah Kaufman, very mad. From where I stand, Penn has the ability to become a Top 10, even a Top 5 fighter on this list in the next few years, but does he have the desire? The interesting thing to me is that cleaning out the lightweight division, which is full of new challengers, would propel Penn into the Top 10 easily and get him the respect he feels he deserves. Let your actions speak for you, Baby Jay.

11. Frank Shamrock
UFC Record: 5-0
Victories Over: Tito Ortiz, Jeremy Horn, Igor Zinoviev

What can you say about the first ever UFC Light Heavyweight champ? He literally beat everyone the UFC ever put before him, including tough challenges in Horn and Ortiz, slammed Igor Zinoviev into retirement and walked away with a fist-full of wins against a goose egg in the loss department. The only thing that I would say is missing is a monster blowout between him and "his brother" Ken. That would have been awesome. Now it would just be ugly.

Only ten names remain and we all know who they are.
But what order will they come out in?
Who will be in the coveted #1 spot?

Patience my children, patience.

The UFC 100: 20's, 30's, 40's, 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's.



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FWP: Henderson vs. Bisping

Man an I dying to see this fight go down!

Not only because of the well-edited, Reality TV created heat between these two, but because this fight will answer a number of questions, including what happens next in the UFC Middleweight division.

Where does Dan Henderson stand with a win?
Does Bisping earn a title shot at UFC 105 in London if he comes out victorious?
Is Bisping really a top contender in the division or has he simply looked good against lesser opponents?
What does Henderson have left in the tank?

Let's break it down, shall we?

Dan Henderson (24-7-0) vs. Michael Bisping (18-1-0)

It's finally nice to have a fight I can break down in my traditional methods, examining strength of schedule, training camps, and everything else, instead of just knowing that Jon Fitch and Yoshihiro Akiyama are going to run through their UFC 100 opponents.

In terms of training camps, as much as I like Wolfslair and the work they have done getting Rampage back on track and Bisping to this level, Henderson and the group at Team Quest get the edge here.

Most of the time, when you're the top dog of the training group, the challenges and punishment you take in getting ready for a fight isn't always top notch. Ask Matt Hughes since he left MFS. That isn't the case with Henderson and Team Quest, as Matt Lindland is just as talented and decorated a wrestler as Hendo and the number of high caliber fighters who can help him prepare dwarfs those of Wolfslair Academy.

Looking at what I call "strength of schedule" - the collection of fighters each man has faced over their careers - Henderson is the hands down winner. While Bisping's biggest challenge to date has been Rashad Evans. Henderson has gone to war with the likes of Anderson Silva, Rampage Jackson, Rich Franklin and both Nogueira brothers. Advantage: Hendo, easily.

The most interesting element of this fight is the stylistic matchup, as Henderson is an Olympic level wrestler and Bisping is a boxer / kickboxer with some of the fastest hands in the division. But here is the wrinkle: Bisping and his coaches have been saying he is going to out-wrestle the wrestler. What?

Do they not remember what happened last time "The Count" stepped into the cage with a wrestler? Matt Hammil tossed him around the Octagon at will before losing a horrible decision. Not to take anything away from Matt Hammil, but he's no Dan Henderson. To me, this sounds like either (a) pre-fight hype or (b) career suicide. I'm hoping for A.

Here is what makes this fight so attractive to me:

Everything I have come up with to this point points in the direction of a Dan Henderson win. More experience, better all-around game, stronger training camp... but why can't I shake the feeling that this just might be Michael Bisping's grabbing the torch and stepping to the upper echelon of the Middleweight division?

I know none are anywhere near the level of Dan Henderson, but Bisping looked real good in destroying Charles McCarthy and Jason Day before executing a perfect game plan against Chris Leben.

He's training alongside Rampage who could certainly provide a great deal of insight into beating Dan Henderson, having done so himself in the UFC.

And it's not like Henderson has been dominating people as of late either.

Can't it be Saturday already so I can just stop going back and forth on this in my head and watch a great fight?






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