Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC 99

The record is getting better - 7-3 at WEC 41 helped - but the fights are getting harder.

Time to flip a coin and see who will emerge victorious... okay, so I'm not flipping a coin, but it's pretty damn close with some of these fights.

Mirko "Cro Cop" (22-5-2) vs. Mostahpa Al Turk (6-4)
I don't care that Cro Cop is most likely nowhere near the Cro Cop of old. Did you see the way Checik Kongo demolished Al Turk in their last fight? One big kick and this one is done. You don't bring him back on a one fight deal if you expect him to get dummied.

Spencer Fisher (23-4) vs. Caol Uno (27-11-4)
As much as I love seeing Spencer Fisher in wars, that inability to finish guys in those stand-up slugfests is what I see working against him. While he might pick away at Uno, the veteran has simply been down that road too many times against higher calibre opponents.

Marcus Davis (21-5) vs. Dan Hardy (21-6-1)
Thing with poking a bear with a stick is that sometimes, the bear gets mighty pissed and claws your arm off with the stick still in your hand. Unfortunately, I don't think Marcus Davis is that kind of bear. He'll be fired up and despite what he says, will be trying to kill Dan Hardy. Then he'll make a mistake and catch a counter hook in the bean and drop like a sack of potatoes.

Mike Swick (13-2) vs. Ben Saunders (7-0-2)
One thing I'm certain of is that there will be a finish in this fight. When it will come and who will be the one getting their hand raise will all depend on who controls the action. Swick will be looking to pick his spots from a safe distance and Saunders will be looking to use his reach and that deadly Thai clinch. Flip a coin...

Cheick Kongo (24-4-1) vs. Cain Velasquez (5-0)
Kongo has looked damn good in his last couple fights, but Cain just keeps getting better. I liked that he was pissed he didn't finish Denis Stojnic sooner, that shows hunger to me. The guys Kongo has struggled with - Carmelo Marrero and Heath Herring - took the fight to the ground and used their wrestling on the big man. Neither of them is in the same category when it comes to wrestling as the former ASU All-American.

Rich "Ace" Franklin (26-4) vs. Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva (32-9-1)
Simple as this: if Wandi is still all about pleasing the fans, he's going to get laid out. If he sticks to a game plan and uses his aggression wisely, he'll get the win. Remember, Franklin sure didn't like being in Anderson Silva's clinch and Wanderlei has a deeply clinch game too.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 20-21

Preliminary Card
John Hathaway over Rick Story
Denis Stojnic over Stefan Struve
Paul Kelly over Roli Delgado
Paul Taylor over Peter Sobotta
Dennis Siver over Dale Hartt
Justin Buccholz over Terry Etim

Main Card
Mirko Cro Cop over Mustapha Al Turk
Caol Uno over Spencer Fisher
Dan Hardy over Marcus Davis
Ben Saunders over Mike Swick
Cain Velasquez over Cheick Kongo

And in the Main Event of the evening...

Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva over Rich Franklin!

Now touch gloves and come out swingin'...


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Fight Week Previews: Franklin vs. Silva

Time to tackle the Main Event.

While I wouldn't call it "the match up fight fans have been waiting to see" or whatever they've billed it as in the commercials, it certainly is an interesting tilt and one that should contain some serious fireworks.

And for those saying this is a sub-par Main Event, UFC 89 (Bisping vs. Leben) and UFC 95 (Sanchez vs. Stevenson) could tell you a thing or two about being sub-par, not "Ace" and "The Axe Murderer."


Rich Franklin (26-4) versus Wanderlei Silva (32-9-1)
Let's get the training team and training partners angle out of the way right off the bat, shall we?

It certainly doesn't hurt Rich Franklin to be training with Anderson Silva, just because he's Anderson Silva. The fact that Silva has previous knowledge and experience training with Franklin's opponent is clearly a bonus.

That being said, it also pisses off "The Axe Murderer" and even the way that sentence sounds comes off a little dangerous. It's not like Wanderlei trains in solitude either. The entire Wand Fight Team lives under one roof and Silva is a true pioneer in cross-training and circuit training.

As has been the case with a lot of the main card fights, training is a wash.

Franklin and Silva share one mutual opponent: Dan Henderson. Both suffered losses to the former Pride dual champion, though Franklin came out on the wrong side of a close decision in his last fight, while Wanderlei was knocked stiff in his last Pride bout.

Though Franklin gets a slight edge from his "better" result against Hendo, Wanderlei has the stronger overall competition. Not to take anything away from the guys Rich Franklin has fought and defeated, but Wanderlei has been in the ring with some of the best when they were at their peak and came away victorious more often than not. Then again, Wanderlei has two losses in three UFC fights, while Franklin has three in four and a half years...

Stylistically, this fight is a nightmare for Wanderlei Silva. I know that sounds strange, but guys who are willing to take a couple shots to find the right counter-punching opportunity are his kryptonite. Look at the Rampage fight. Franklin is strong enough on his feet and has exhibited a strong enough chin over the years to take a couple of "The Axe Murderer's" early offerings and still move forward.

While Franklin is no slouch on the ground, perhaps this is one time that it might be beneficial for Silva to display the BJJ skills he is reputed to have. After all, you don't train with a multiple time world champion and not pick up a thing or two.

24 hours before I tell you who I like, I still don't know. This whole card has me second-guessing and over-analyzing, and those are the cards I really enjoy.

See you tomorrow for the Punch Drunk Predictions.
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Fight Week Previews: Velasquez vs. Kongo

It's time to find out how good Cain Velesquez truly is, as he takes a massive step up in competition with Cheick Kongo.

Originally slated to take on heavyweight Gatekeeper Heath Herring, the former Arizona State Sun Devil will now face a man many believe will be in line for a title shot should he earn the win on Saturday.

I'm two days away from making my Punch Drunk Predictions and I still have no idea who I'm taking in this one. Time to break it down.


Cain Velasquez (5-0) versus Cheick Kongo (24-4-1)
Clearly, Kongo has the edge in terms of experience and strength of competition. He has five times as many fights as the AKA product and has spent time inside the cage with the likes of Cro Cop, Christian Wellisch, Antoni Hardonk and the man he is replacing, Heath Herring.

Velasquez, on the other hand, received his toughest test in his last fight, courtesy of Denis Stojnic. Incidentally, Stojnic is also on the UFC 99 card, fighting Stefan Struve in a "Loser leaves UFC" match. I'm just sayin' is all...

I'm calling the training match up a wash, as both AKA and Wolfslair are outstanding facilities that offer strong camps, quality training partners and send prepared fighters into battle every time. Which brings us to the style question.

While Velasquez has certainly improved his stand up since coming to the UFC, he'll need to go back to his bread and butter - wrestling - bringing the much larger Frenchman to the canvas for some old fashion ground and pound.

That's a lot easier said than done, of course, because Kongo will undoubtedly be looking to keep this standing where he can use his full arsenal of striking skills to bloody Velasquez, who many are calling the future of the heavyweight division.

This is a fight that asks a classic question: do you take the established veteran or the mostly untested, but potentially dominating young star?

I need a couple more days to sort it out.


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Fight Week Previews: Swick vs. Saunders

We continue our weekly trip through the Main Card of UFC 99 with an intriguing bout that has me asking more questions than I can possibly answer.

Is welterweight where Mike Swick is going to shine?

Can Ben Saunders put on a similar display to his last fight against a much more talented opponent?

We'll try to answer both after the jump.


Mike Swick (13-2) versus Ben Saunders (7-0-2)
Clearly, the edge in quality of opponents goes to Swick, a graduate of the original Ultimate Fighter who has made a nice transition to the middleweight ranks after beginning his UFC career at 185.

His last loss came to Yushin Okami, a fighter many believe is the most deserving of a shot at Anderson Silva's Middleweight belt, while he has stopped the likes of Marcus Davis, Jonathan Goulet, Joe Riggs and David Loiseau.

Saunders, on the other hand, came to the UFC via TUF 6 where he was eliminated from the competition by Tommy Speer. Since then, Saunders has steamrolled his challengers, including disposing of Brandon Wolff in impressive fashion at UFC Fight for the Troops in December.

As there are no shared opponents, our next step is usually to decipher who comes from the better team, but this one is a push. Swick trains with Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, Cain Velasquez and company at American Kickboxing Academy in San Jose, while "Killa B" has set up shop with American Top Team, meaning his training partners include guys like Thiago Alves, Denis Kang and Wilson Gouveia.

What makes this fight all the more interesting is the resonating image of Saunders driving knee after knee after knee into the face of Brandon Wolff. His Thai Clinch looked very, very good on that night and many fans and followers have climbed about the Ben Saunders Bandwagon.

But was that an inaccurate representation of his skills? Wolff is now gone from the UFC following another loss and Saunders has beaten the equivalent of a ham sandwich compared to the talents Swick has earned wins over. My man Zak Woods at Watch Kalib Run breaks down the Ben Saunders situation best.

Thing is, a lot of guys have had inauspicious starts only to find that groove in what looks like a meaningless fight and go on to bigger and better. Who am I to say that bigger and better doesn't start Saturday for Ben Saunders?



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Fight Week Previews: Davis vs. Hardy

Marcus Davis and Dan Hardy have been trading verbal jabs since before this fight was signed. Saturday, they'll finally get to hit each other with something more than vicious rhetoric and photoshop'ed pictures.

Their dislike for each other stems from Hardy's disapproval of what he calls Davis' gimmick, playing to fans in the United Kingdom through his ancestry and nickname as "The Irish Hand Grenade."

Regardless of what caused the bad blood, it's at a boiling point and come Saturday, someone is going to get burned.


"The Irish Hand Grenade" Marcus Davis (21-5) versus Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy (21-6-1)
There are no common threads in opponents between the dueling factions, so we'll jump right into strength of competition. The edge has to go to Davis, simply because he's been fighting with the UFC for a longer stretch of time. He's put in more time in the cage against quality opponents than his British rival, having fought the likes of Mike Swick, Chris Lytle, Paul Kelly and Paul Taylor.

That being said, Davis has yet to prove himself against the upper echelon of fighters. In the one instance that he fought someone with reasonable title aspirations (Swick), he dropped a Unanimous Decision. Other than that, he's beat up on guys who clearly are mid-card filler and fighters from the UK that are put on the card to help sell the overseas events.

Hardy, on the other hand, has had just two fights with the UFC and came away with a pair of decent wins, first by decision over Akihiro Gono followed by knocking Pat Miletich trainee Rory Markham stiff.

Stylistically, both guys are going to want to stand and bang. While each surely has skills beyond their striking, they are both boxers by nature, Davis having competed professionally before turning to MMA, while Hardy has been gearing up for this fight under the guidance of Hall of Fame trainer Freddie Roach.

Each can say what they want about not looking to get into a boxing match, but you go with what you do best and for each, that is knocking people out. Should this fight go to the ground, the edge has to go to Davis, who has actually finished more opponents via submission than he has with his vaunted knockout ability.

No matter what side of the debate you land on or if you're playing Switzerland in this war of words, this fight has all the makings of a Fight of the Night candidate and at the very least will produce some fireworks and put an end to all this trash talk.

Let the best man win.



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Fight Week Preview: Double Duty

This weekend brings UFC 99 into our lives from Cologne, Germany, so as per tradition, we're breaking down the fights on the Main Card one day at a time leading up to our Punch Drunk Predictions on Saturday.

Today brings two fights, however, as six fights have been guaranteed for the pay-per-view from the Lanxess Arena. Since we all know Mondays suck, we figured talking about two fights would be a good way to get over the "I wish it was still the weekend" blues and delay doing any real work.

Spencer Fisher and Caol Uno comes later, Cro Cop and Al Turk is right after the jump.


Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (22-5-2) vs. Mustapha Al Turk (6-4)
The nostalgic me wants to be excited, as "Cro Cop" certainly left some highlight reel impressions on my memory back in his glory days in Pride. However, his first run in the UFC left a lot to be desired, as he was knocked stiff by a Gabriel Gonzaga head kick and outpointed by Cheick Kongo following his debut win over Eddie Sanchez.

Playing the role of Eddie Sanchez this weekend is Al Turk, a big dude who was scheduled to be the debut victim of Todd Duffee, the former Hardcore Gym heavyweight who now works with American Top Team. While he gets the honor of fighting on the main card with the replacement of Duffee, he also walks into the Octagon against one of the deadly strikers the sport has ever seen. Congratulations, you still lose.

If "Cro Cop" is anywhere near the form we've seen from him in the past, this will be academic. While Al Turk and Filipovic both have UFC losses to Cheick Kongo on their records, the Croatian went the distance and there were some questionable strikes that could have gone either way, while the London Shootfighters member got pummeled inside of the first round.

Clearly, this is a chance to get a famous face on the card in front of the overseas fans. Ask me about "Cro Cop" again when his next opponent is named.

Spencer Fisher (23-4) vs. Caol Uno (27-11-4)
Now this one I'm looking forward to, and not just because a dude named Spencer is fighting either. This has the potential to be Fight of the Night, as everyone can remember the Sam Stout wars Fisher has fought in the past and Uno has a reputation as one of the most unflappable fighters in the business.

On strength of opponents, you have to give the nod to Uno, as he's been in the ring and inside the cage with some of the best 155 pounders in the world. Granted, a number of those top tier match ups have been loses, but squaring off against Shinya Aoki, Gesias Cavalcante, Kid Yamamoto and Joachim Hansen is far greater than fighting Jeremy Stephens and "Handsome" Matt Wiman.

That being said, Fisher could have an edge stylistically if he follows his usual game plan, one similar to the one put forth by Jens Pulver in his win over Uno for the then UFC Bantamweight title back in 2001. Stuff the takedown and pump the jab should be the mindset for Fisher, as both he and Uno have shown they have the cardio to go the distance. Keeping the returning Japanese star from taking the fight to the ground could be the difference maker.

Interestingly enough, the one shared opponent between the two fails to shed any light on the situation either, as both Fisher and Uno have dropped fights to Hermes Franca, both in the second round.

Unlike the first fight we previewed, this one could go either way and I can't wait to see it.

Tomorrow: Tackling the Trash Talk - Dan Hardy versus Marcus Davis.
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Thems Fightin' Words!

Unlike the middle-aged shit talking that transpired between Matt Serra and Matt Hughes leading up to their unworthy Fight of the Night at UFC 98, the war of words between Dan Hardy and Marcus Davis heading into their bout at UFC 99 next Saturday has been off the charts.

Tensions started rising when the brash young Brit started calling into question both Davis' talents as a boxer and what Hardy calls his "gimmick" of being known as "The Irish Hand Grenade."


Davis has subsequently responded on his UFC blog with venom - and an unintentional shot at bloggers everywhere - stating that he "hates Dan Hardy" and looks forward to punching holes in his face. The former professional boxer calls Hardy a punk for uttering "all his smack talk from behind his keyboard like a 14 year old living in his mom’s basement."

Once and for all - not all smack talkin' bloggers live in their mother's basement. Some of us live in beautiful condos on the side of ski hills, thankyouverymuch...

While Davis has taken great offense to what he calls an attack on his heritage, I have to say I agree with "The Outlaw" on this one. For starters, the fact that Davis alternates nicknames based on where he is fighting lends immediate credibility to Hardy's comments. You can't call yourself "The Irish Hand Grenade" only to switch it up to "The Celtic Warrior" because you're fighting in Northern Ireland. You're either one or the other. Not both.

Secondly, you can't really argue with Hardy when Davis' last six fights have all taken place on foreign soil. I certainly understand that it's in the UFC's best interest to have local and regional fighters on cards where they have the most appeal, but it's not as if Davis is headlining.

This is a mutually beneficial arrangement from the looks of it; Davis gets to fight on the Main Card and the UFC gets a solid draw to promote based on his proud Irish heritage. That being said, you'd be kidding yourself if you thought Davis was anywhere near a title shot and anything more than a guaranteed entertaining fight while overseas.

The last time he fought anyone remotely near championship caliber -Mike Swick at UFC 85 - he came out on the wrong end of a Unanimous Decision. Davis makes a living fighting on cards like this against guys who are willing to stand and trade with him, ensuring the fans get a slugfest while no damage is done to the UFC Welterweight picture.

Granted, the exact same can be said of Hardy at this point in his UFC career as well. "The Outlaw" hasn't done a whole lot of anything in the UFC as of yet, having had just two fights, both on the other side of the pond. He too is reaping the benefits of the UFC's foray into foreign markets just like his opponent, but something tells me that if Marcus Davis ends up like Rory Markham, the UFC will put the English kid with the explosive hands on a plane to the United States and a bigger and better talent pool.

Regardless of what side you're taking in the big mouth battle between Dan Hardy and Marcus Davis, one thing is certain: there's going to be fireworks inside the cage on June 13 in Cologne.

Who could ask for anything more?
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