Sunday, January 10, 2010

WEC 46: Punch Drunk Predictions

In the next 36 hours, I'll flip a coin 21 times. I mean....

Beginning tonight with WEC 46 and concluding tomorrow with Fight Night 20 from Fairfax, Virginia, fight fans have the opportunity to enjoy between eight and ten fights free from the comfort of their couches.

Additionally, I get a chance to bring my prediction percentage up over 60% where it belongs.

New to the PDP series, a little more insight to my selections; instead of just telling you who I'm picking, a little explanation as to why I'm going that way might make things clearer... or validate your belief that I don't know my arse from a hole in the ground.


Coty Wheeler (10-2-0) vs. Will Campuzano (6-1-0)

Campuzano got thrown to the wolves in his debut, stepping in to face hard-hitting Damacio Page. He certainly can't have any worse a performance as he did against "The Angel of Death." Wheeler has solid submission skills, but outside of catching a stray limb, he doesn't have the all-around game to hang with Campuzano for 15 minutes if necessary.

Eddie Wineland (15-6-1) vs. George Roop (10-5-0)

Wineland was the first Bantamweight champ in WEC history, and often gets extra credit because of that fact. Grinding out a win over Manny Tapia last time gets him some consideration, but the former Ultimate Fighter contestant Roop gets the nod, as his length will be too much to handle in his debut at 135.

Mark Hominick (16-8-0) vs. Brian Caraway (14-3-0)

This one is ultra-easy, and not in the "Hominick is Canadian, so I'm picking Hominick" angle many of you are probably expecting. My fellow Canadian hasn't fought in over a year and has a serious issue with getting submitted. Caraway, on the other hand, earned two wins in 2009 and has a habit of making guys tap. Canadian or not, Hominick gets submitted.

Wagnney Fabiano (12-2-0) vs. Clint Godfrey (11-1-0)

Three months ago, Fabiano was one of the Top 3 contenders in the Featherweight division. Then Mackens Semerzier submitted him, Jose Aldo won the title at 145, and Fabiano moved to Bantamweight to start again. I have no idea what Clint Godfrey was doing four months ago, and that should be all the information you need to know where I'm headed with this one.

Charlie Valencia (11-5-0) vs. Akitoshi Tamura (14-7-2)

Both are veterans, but Tamura has done better against top competition over his career than Valencia. While the Ontario, California native can proudly say he's hung in there with Brian Bowles, Urijah Faber and Cub Swanson, Tamura has beaten "Lion" Takeshi Inoue, Manny Tapia and Rumina Sato.

Mackens Semerzier (5-0-0) vs. Deividas Taurosevicius (11-3-0)

This has all the potential to be a letdown fight for Semerzier, who enters off his surprising submission of the aforementioned Wagnney Fabiano in October. Though Taurosevicius is a tough veteran, Miguel Torres says Semerzier is the real deal, and who am I to argue with Torres and his fabulous mullet?

Dave Jansen (14-0-0) vs. Kamal Shalorus (5-0-1)

The Iranian wrestler who has shown knockout power is getting a lot of support going into this bout, but not from me. I made the mistake of doubting Dave Jansen last time around, and it won't happen again. My money - figuratively speaking - is on Jansen finding a submission and giving Shalorus his first loss.

Mike Brown (22-5-0) vs. Anthony Morrison (15-7-0)

"Cheesesteak" is tough and has power in his hands, but Brown asked to get back into the cage quickly and wants to get into a rematch with Jose Aldo for the Featherweight title. He might have to wait his turn, but he starts down that path tonight in a fight I don't expect to last very long.

Urijah Faber (22-3-0) vs. Raphael Assuncao (14-1-0)

This just feels like a "Trap Fight" to me. Faber is being looked at as the next challenger to Jose Aldo, and while it could very well happen, Assuncao is a Top 5 Featherweight and Faber hasn't fought in seven months. I'm taking the upset.

Jamie Varner (16-2-0) vs. Ben Henderson (10-1-0)

While this is the first time Varner has stepped inside the cage in nearly a year, it will be the fourth such journey for Henderson. On top of that, "Smooth" has looked every bit his nickname in earning wins over Anthony Njokuani, Shane Roller and Donald Cerrone in that time. Varner is a tough kid and still has a bright future, but the ring rust and Henderson's ridiculous pace get the better of him.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 135-96-1

Preliminary Card
Will Campuzano over Coty Wheeler - Unanimous Decision
George Roop over Eddie Wineland - Unanimous Decision
Bryan Caraway over Mark Hominick - Submission, Round 1
Wagnney Fabiano over Clint Godfrey - Submission, Round 2
Akitoshi Tamura over Charlie Valencia - TKO, Round 2

Main Card
Mackens Semerzier over Deividas Taurosevicius - TKO, Round 2
Dave Jansen over Kamal Shalorus - Submission, Round 2
Mike Brown over Anthony Morrison - Submission, Round 1
Raphael Assuncao over Urijah Faber - TKO, Round 2

And in the Main Event of the evening...

Ben "Smooth" Henderson over Jamie Varner via technical knockout in Round 3 to unify the WEC Lightweight title.

Now touch gloves and come out swinging!

1 comment:

  1. Good night of fights, although a tough night of picks.

    4-6-0 to drag the record to 139-100-1... but a chance to rebound comes up tomorrow.


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