UFC Fight Night 20: Punch Drunk Predictions

To say I need a bounce-back night of picks would be a bit of an understatement.

While going 4-6 at WEC 46 isn't all that bad, I've shown the kind of maddening inconsistency in my forecasting that gets a weatherman fired, and a fighter released.

Thankfully, the UFC offers up an immediate opportunity to rebound from picking up my 100th loss of the Keyboard Kimura era courtesy of Fight Night 20 from Fairfax, Virginia.

Same new format applies - synthesis as well as selections. Hopefully we can do a little better tonight.

Nick Catone (7-2-0) vs. Jesse Forbes (10-3-0)

In a contest between two fighters heading in opposite directions, I don't see a sudden detour in either man's future, making Forbes the choice and Catone the guy who ends up holding a pink slip later in the week.

Catone has faced a couple tough tests in his two UFC contests to date, losing to Mark Munoz and Tim Credeur, but momentum and confidence play a big part in the business of fighting, and Forbes enters off five wins in 2009. He also gets a second chance with the UFC, and I don't expect the Arizona Combat Sports product to stumble a second time.

Gerald Harris (13-2-0) vs. John Salter (4-0-0)

While getting the call late often makes being prepared a bit of a problem, it could also work to your advantage if you focus solely on doing what you do best. Salter is a tremendous grappler and will look to take this fight to the floor from the opening bell. From there, it will be academic.

All the pressure rests on Harris's shoulders, as the former TUF contestant gets a second chance to make a good impression on the UFC brass. A last minute replacement with a somewhat different approach and background than original opponent Mike Massenzio could throw him off.

Kyle Bradley (14-6-0, 1 NC) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (12-4-0)

Even though he lost to Tyson Griffin, dos Anjos showed enough in that fight to make him the favorite last time out against Rob Emerson. He validated that support by chopping "The Saint's" legs out from under him with repeated leg kicks and should do the same here with Bradley.

Mike Guymon (11-2-0) vs. Rory MacDonald (9-0-0)

I went against the Canadian last night, and Mark Hominick made me pay, pulling out an armbar submission against Bryan Caraway. The same won't happen here, as I have been and will continue to be entrenched in the corner of Kelowna's Rory MacDonald throughout his UFC career.

The 20-year-old Canadian has been steamrolling the competition, including stopping veterans Clay French and Nick Hinchcliffe. Guymon is just another veteran standing in the way of the best prospect to come out of Canada since GSP.

Thiago Tavares (14-3-0) vs. Nik Lentz (17-3-1)

Tavares has been out of action for 12 months, while Lentz is coming off an impressive debut win over Rafaello Oliveira in September. While there was a time when Tavares was viewed as a possible title contender, those thoughts went out the window for good when Matt Wiman laid him out at UFC 85.

Lentz is a tremendous wrestler, a base criterion for entrance into Greg Nelson's Minnesota Martial Arts Academy, and will out-muscle his opponent for the full 15 minutes.

Rick Story (8-3-0) vs. Jesse Lennox (11-1-0)

Story is the favorite and the pick in this welterweight bout. His opponents of note - Jake Ellenberger, John Hathaway and Brian Foster - have all shown they belong in the UFC, and so too does Story.

This one has Fight of the Night potential.

Chris Leben (18-6-0) vs. Jay Silva (5-2-0)

Part of me wants to pick Leben, simply because Silva could very well decide to stand with "The Crippler" and for all his shortcomings, Leben still has a lethal left hand.

That said, he has repeatedly proven that he doesn't have the heart to compete in the UFC, from neglecting to train properly heading into his homecoming fight with Jake Rosholt to getting an anabolic edge against Michael Bisping.

Picking Silva has far more to do with my lack of confident in Leben than my opinions of his Brazilian opponent.

Amir Sadollah (2-1-0) vs. Brad Blackburn (17-9-1, 1 NC)

Brad Blackburn isn't going to gas in the first round like Phil Baroni. He's not going to lean against the cage like a human punching bag, giving Sadollah a chance to showcase his excellent Muay Thai.

Amir has the edge in terms of grappling thanks to his Sambo background, but Blackburn has far more experience and has the power to stop Sadollah with one shot, something we've seen happen before.

I like Amir, as a host and as a charismatic figure in the sport. In this fight, however, I like Blackburn.

Tom Lawlor (6-1-0,1 NC) vs. Aaron Simpson (6-0-0)

There are a number of superlatives that get attached to Aaron Simpson and they have revolve around his athleticism and results inside the cage thus far.

There are also a number of superlatives that get attached to Tom Lawlor, though few have anything to do with his in-ring performances to date. That's what happens when you're the Clown Prince of the UFC Weigh-Ins.

Over-the-top outfits and entrances aside, Lawlor has enough wrestling to match up well with Simpson and holds the edge in power. The "A-Train" gets derailed tonight.

Efrain Escudero (13-0-0) vs. Evan Dunham (9-0-0)

We've seen Dunham pick his spots en route to a unanimous decision, and land a powerful right down the pipe to put away Per Eklund, but I can't see either outcome materializing tonight.

Escudero will push the pace and get inside on Dunham, and has the boxing defense to ensure he doesn't get caught. From there, his outstanding wrestling will bring the fight to the floor, leading to some serious ground-and-pound and another win for the TUF 8 Lightweight winner.

Gray Maynard (8-0-0, 1 NC) vs. Nathan Diaz (11-4-0)

A title shot waits in the wings for Maynard should he come through this fight with a win. While that would normally be motivation enough, the fact that he can avenge his TUF 5 loss to Diaz at the same time might deliver us the best Gray Maynard we've seen yet.

"The Bully" is too big, too strong, and too good of a wrestler for Diaz. He's advanced his game a great deal since they met on The Ultimate Fighter, and uses this win to secure his place opposite BJ Penn later in the year.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 139-100-1

Preliminary Fights
Jesse Forbes over Nick Catone - TKO, Round 2
John Salter over Gerald Harris - Submission, Round 1
Rafael dos Anjos over Kyle Bradley - Submission, Round 2
Rory MacDonald over Mike Guymon - TKO, Round 1
Nik Lentz over Thiago Tavares - Unanimous Decision
Rick Story over Jesse Lennox - Submission, Round 2
Jay Silva over Chris Leben - TKO, Round 1

Main Card Fights
Brad Blackburn over Amir Sadollah - TKO, Round 1
Tom Lawlor over Aaron Simpson - Split Decision
Efrain Escudero over Evan Dunham - TKO, Round 1

And in the Main Event of the evening...

Gray Maynard over Nathan Diaz via Unanimous Decision.

Now touch gloves and come out swinging!





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WEC 46: Punch Drunk Predictions

In the next 36 hours, I'll flip a coin 21 times. I mean....

Beginning tonight with WEC 46 and concluding tomorrow with Fight Night 20 from Fairfax, Virginia, fight fans have the opportunity to enjoy between eight and ten fights free from the comfort of their couches.

Additionally, I get a chance to bring my prediction percentage up over 60% where it belongs.

New to the PDP series, a little more insight to my selections; instead of just telling you who I'm picking, a little explanation as to why I'm going that way might make things clearer... or validate your belief that I don't know my arse from a hole in the ground.

Whatever.

Coty Wheeler (10-2-0) vs. Will Campuzano (6-1-0)

Campuzano got thrown to the wolves in his debut, stepping in to face hard-hitting Damacio Page. He certainly can't have any worse a performance as he did against "The Angel of Death." Wheeler has solid submission skills, but outside of catching a stray limb, he doesn't have the all-around game to hang with Campuzano for 15 minutes if necessary.

Eddie Wineland (15-6-1) vs. George Roop (10-5-0)

Wineland was the first Bantamweight champ in WEC history, and often gets extra credit because of that fact. Grinding out a win over Manny Tapia last time gets him some consideration, but the former Ultimate Fighter contestant Roop gets the nod, as his length will be too much to handle in his debut at 135.

Mark Hominick (16-8-0) vs. Brian Caraway (14-3-0)

This one is ultra-easy, and not in the "Hominick is Canadian, so I'm picking Hominick" angle many of you are probably expecting. My fellow Canadian hasn't fought in over a year and has a serious issue with getting submitted. Caraway, on the other hand, earned two wins in 2009 and has a habit of making guys tap. Canadian or not, Hominick gets submitted.

Wagnney Fabiano (12-2-0) vs. Clint Godfrey (11-1-0)

Three months ago, Fabiano was one of the Top 3 contenders in the Featherweight division. Then Mackens Semerzier submitted him, Jose Aldo won the title at 145, and Fabiano moved to Bantamweight to start again. I have no idea what Clint Godfrey was doing four months ago, and that should be all the information you need to know where I'm headed with this one.

Charlie Valencia (11-5-0) vs. Akitoshi Tamura (14-7-2)

Both are veterans, but Tamura has done better against top competition over his career than Valencia. While the Ontario, California native can proudly say he's hung in there with Brian Bowles, Urijah Faber and Cub Swanson, Tamura has beaten "Lion" Takeshi Inoue, Manny Tapia and Rumina Sato.

Mackens Semerzier (5-0-0) vs. Deividas Taurosevicius (11-3-0)

This has all the potential to be a letdown fight for Semerzier, who enters off his surprising submission of the aforementioned Wagnney Fabiano in October. Though Taurosevicius is a tough veteran, Miguel Torres says Semerzier is the real deal, and who am I to argue with Torres and his fabulous mullet?

Dave Jansen (14-0-0) vs. Kamal Shalorus (5-0-1)

The Iranian wrestler who has shown knockout power is getting a lot of support going into this bout, but not from me. I made the mistake of doubting Dave Jansen last time around, and it won't happen again. My money - figuratively speaking - is on Jansen finding a submission and giving Shalorus his first loss.

Mike Brown (22-5-0) vs. Anthony Morrison (15-7-0)

"Cheesesteak" is tough and has power in his hands, but Brown asked to get back into the cage quickly and wants to get into a rematch with Jose Aldo for the Featherweight title. He might have to wait his turn, but he starts down that path tonight in a fight I don't expect to last very long.

Urijah Faber (22-3-0) vs. Raphael Assuncao (14-1-0)

This just feels like a "Trap Fight" to me. Faber is being looked at as the next challenger to Jose Aldo, and while it could very well happen, Assuncao is a Top 5 Featherweight and Faber hasn't fought in seven months. I'm taking the upset.

Jamie Varner (16-2-0) vs. Ben Henderson (10-1-0)

While this is the first time Varner has stepped inside the cage in nearly a year, it will be the fourth such journey for Henderson. On top of that, "Smooth" has looked every bit his nickname in earning wins over Anthony Njokuani, Shane Roller and Donald Cerrone in that time. Varner is a tough kid and still has a bright future, but the ring rust and Henderson's ridiculous pace get the better of him.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 135-96-1

Preliminary Card
Will Campuzano over Coty Wheeler - Unanimous Decision
George Roop over Eddie Wineland - Unanimous Decision
Bryan Caraway over Mark Hominick - Submission, Round 1
Wagnney Fabiano over Clint Godfrey - Submission, Round 2
Akitoshi Tamura over Charlie Valencia - TKO, Round 2

Main Card
Mackens Semerzier over Deividas Taurosevicius - TKO, Round 2
Dave Jansen over Kamal Shalorus - Submission, Round 2
Mike Brown over Anthony Morrison - Submission, Round 1
Raphael Assuncao over Urijah Faber - TKO, Round 2

And in the Main Event of the evening...

Ben "Smooth" Henderson over Jamie Varner via technical knockout in Round 3 to unify the WEC Lightweight title.

Now touch gloves and come out swinging!










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UFC 108: Full Card Preview and Predictions

UFC 108 takes the stage tonight from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, looking to silence the critics.

Over the last couple of months, injuries and illnesses have decimated this card, leaving few of the originally planned matches on the card and leading many to describe this event as lackluster, or worse.

While UFC 108 certainly doesn't measure up to the lofty standards of New Years shows gone by - or others from this passed year for that matter - the criticism is somewhat unfounded.

First, it's not like the UFC decided to pull fighters like Brock Lesnar, "Minotauro" Nogueira and Sean Sherk from this card; each of these fighters and countless others have been struck down by injuries that certainly could not have been forecasted.

Additionally, the fact that there is still an event at all speaks volumes about the UFC's commitment to giving fans the best show they can, regardless of unforeseen circumstances.

After all, they could have gone all Affliction and pulled the plug entirely, right?

Preliminary Card Previews

Rafaello Oliveira (9-2-0) vs. John Gunderson (22-6-0)

On a card that features an old school "Striker versus Grappler" style clash as the co-main event, it's fitting that someone representing an old school team makes an appearance, and Gunderson fills that role.

"Quick Guns" is a member of the famous Lion's Den, Ken Shamrock's long-time team that was once one of the most renowned and feared groups in the sport. Now, they come off much like their leader - hanging on by the name alone.

A veteran of the IFL, Gunderson has an edge in experience and has faced tougher competition thus far, having faced off with Ryan Schultz, Wagnney Fabiano and Bart Paleszewski in the past. Of course, each of those three defeated the 30-year-old Oregon native who makes his UFC debut tonight.

Rafaello Oliveiro debuted in August at UFC 102, dropping a Unanimous 29-28 decision to Nik Lentz. After winning the first round, the Brazilian who fights out of Knoxville, Tennessee could not do enough to counter Lentz' strong wrestling.

Originally slated to face Sean Sherk, Oliveiro must take advantage of the change in opponents and claim his first victory inside the Octagon or risk receiving a pink slip come Monday. The lightweight division is too deep at the bottom end for fighters with consecutive losses to keep a spot on the roster.

Mike Pyle (19-6-1) vs. Jake Ellenberger (21-5-0)

Ellenberger announced his presence to UFC fans during his three round battle with Carlos Condit at Fight Night 19 in Oklahoma.

Despite flooring the former WEC welterweight champion on a couple different occasions, the judges scored the fight in the favor of "The Natural Born Killer," though many disagreed. Regardless of the decision, Ellenberger made it known that he has power in his hands, the ability to compete with some of the top competitors at 170 and a motor that never quits.

While the name Mike Pyle may not sound familiar, chances are you've seen him a time or two. He's the guy in the corner of many Xtreme Couture fighters that can be heard shouting encouragement, strategies and curses from the opening bell.

In addition to being a potty-mouthed corner, Pyle is a submission specialist who has earned 15 of his 19 wins by way of submission, including forcing both Jon Fitch and Dan Hornbuckle to tap.

Mark Munoz (6-1-0) vs. Ryan Jensen (14-5-0)

"The Filipino Wrecking Machine" was one of a number of WEC additions who were thrown to the wolves in their debut with the bigger brand under the Zuffa umbrella.

After just five fights - including a win over Mike Pierce - Munoz was sent to the slaughter against Matt Hamill at UFC 96, falling victim to a devastating head kick that left the former All-American and National Champion unconscious.

Since then, Munoz has moved to middleweight, where he looks far more comfortable and better suited. In his debut at 185, the Oklahoma State product earned a win over Nicky Catone.

In all honesty, the lone win Ryan Jensen has earned from four trips inside the Octagon comes with an asterisk. Facing Steve Steinbeiss at Fight Night 19, Jensen latched onto a guillotine. When the ref asked Steinbeiss if he was okay, "The Hooligan" gave the thumbs up.

Somehow, the referee interpreted that to mean Steinbeiss was done, as the fight was called and Jensen earned a very suspect submission victory.

Spike TV Prelims Live Previews

Cole Miller (15-4-0) vs. Dan Lauzon (12-2-0)

The first of the two Lauzon brothers to appear on the UFC 108 card, younger brother Dan makes his return to the UFC riding an eight-fight winning streak, the latest of which was a submission of Bobby "Hood" Green at Affliction: Day of Reckoning in nearly a year ago.

Much like older brother Joe, Dan is a submission specialist, though his recent winning streak has been littered with stoppages due to strikes.

Another half of a fighting brother tandem will be standing opposite Lauzon, as Cole Miller returns, looking to bounce back from a loss to Efrain Escudero on the initial Prelims Live show for UFC 103.

"Magrinho" usually relies on his submission skills as well, which means we could very well be looking at a stand-up war in the making. Much like Rafaello Oliveira earlier on the card, Miller is in need of a win to solidify his status with the company.

Despite a solid pedigree and fighting out of American Top Team, Miller has yet to take that next step and become a real threat in the lightweight division, and continued inconsistency will have him looking for a new place of employment.

Martin Kampmann (15-3-0) vs. Jacob Volkmann (9-1-0)

Both fighters enter off losses, Volkmann suffering the first of his career at the hands of Paulo Thiago just five weeks ago at UFC 106, and Kampmann being the victim of bad decision making in his UFC 103 bout with Paul "Semtex" Daley.

Volkmann showed some flashes of talent and potential in his bout with Thiago, most notably securing a D'Arce choke from his back against the BJJ black belt and Brazilian police officer. Fighting out of Minnesota Martial Arts, the man nicknamed "Christmas" can earn a late belated present in the form of his first UFC win tonight.

Don't let Martin Kampmann's performance last time out fool you; "The Hitman" is still a legitimate contender in the welterweight division. Boasting an impressive combination of striking and submissions, Kampmann played with fire and got burned against Daley, choosing to stand with the striker, instead of taking the fight to the ground where he held a huge advantage.

Though he doesn't have a large an advantage on the canvas this time around, the Xtreme Couture trainee does have an edge in the stand-up, and has shown the power necessary to finish this fight during his middleweight days.

Main Card Previews

Junior dos Santos (9-1-0) vs. Gilbert Yvel (36-13-1, 1 No Contest)

The heavily-tattooed "Hurricane" Yvel is as lethal a striker as exists in the heavyweight division today. At 33, the former RINGS, Pride, and Affliction competitor (amongst others) has stopped Valentjin Overeem, Cheick Kongo, Tsuyoshi Kohsaka and most recently Pedro Rizzo, utilizing an array of finishers including strikes, head kicks and flying knees.

Oh yeah - he's a little bit crazy too, having been disqualified for biting an opponent and for eye gouging Don Frye. He also KTFO'd a referee once.

All of that adds up to a dangerous challenge for Junior dos Santos, the Black House heavyweight who somehow is repeatedly passed over by Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez in future champion discussions despite possessing a more impressive resume.

For his debut, "Cigano" sent Fabricio Werdum packing, riding an uppercut all the way to Strikeforce. For an encore, the Brazilian overwhelmed up-and-comer Stefan Struve, needing just 54 seconds to finish the fight. From there, dos Santos pummeled Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic, forcing the former Pride superstar to verbally submit.

While we've only seen dos Santos stand thus far, expect to see how legitimate his brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under "Minotauro" Nogueira is this time around, as going to the ground is poison for Yvel.

Jim Miller (15-2-0) vs. Duane "Bang" Ludwig (19-9-0)

"Bang" Ludwig is a tough veteran who has been in there with some top talents over the years, including holding wins over Jens Pulver, Jonathan Goulet and Yves Edwards. That said, how much can you expect from a guy coming in on no more than two weeks notice?

This is a serious statement fight for Miller, whose two losses came to Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar, the 1 and 1A of title contenders at 155. Originally scheduled to face Tyson Griffin, and then Sean Sherk, Miller needs to put on a dominant performance against Ludwig to solidify his standing in the stacked lightweight division.

Routinely beating up lesser opponents will keep you employed, but it won't earn you any title shots, so Miller needs to show he's ready to face either of his injured potential opponents and move into the upper ranks.

Joe Lauzon (18-4-0) vs. Sam Stout (14-5-1)

The fact that Sam Stout is just 25-years-old doesn't seem real. It feels like he's been around forever, probably because his classic battles with Spencer Fisher live forever on highlight reels and UFC specials galore.

The London, Ontario native and former Keyboard Kimura Interview Series participant has been patiently waiting since September for an opportunity to get back into the cage, as many will remember his fight against Philippe Nover was canceled on the day of the fight due to Nover suffering a seizure.

Stout has an iron jaw and enough power in his hands to change the course of the fight with one punch. That said, the chances of Joe Lauzon allowing this fight to remain standing longer than it absolutely has to are slim and none.

Coming back off major knee surgery, Lauzon has been out of the cage since defeating Jeremy Stephens in February. 5-1 over his six fight career with the UFC, Lauzon is in a similar position to Jim Miller, in that he needs to cement his place as an upper tier fighter, and a win over the tough-as-nails Stout would certainly help.

The biggest question heading in, of course, is how the extended time off will affect the Massachusetts native. We've seen guys like "Shogun" Rua have a difficult time in their first fight back off a similar surgery, so expectations and impressions of Lauzon tonight must certainly be tempered.

Dustin Hazelett (12-4-0) vs. Paul Daley (22-5-2)

The easiest preview of the card, as a classic "striker vs. grappler" battle shapes up in the co-main event.

While his striking has certainly improved during his time in the UFC, Dustin Hazelett is and always will be a submission specialist. A BJJ black belt under Jorge Gurgel, Hazelett will enjoy a four-inch height advantage in addition to his serious edge if the fight goes to the ground.

Unfortunately, all fights start standing and Paul Daley showed in his UFC debut that he likes to stand-and-bang.

Bravado and build-up for the fight aside, Daley knows that his best chance to secure another win is by knocking out "McLovin," and he'll look to stay as far away from the floor as possible. Of his eight career defeats, five have come by way of submission.

One thing that hasn't been discussed much in regards to this fight is where a win will put either of these fighters.

Daley would have two solid UFC wins and probably have earned himself a date with someone in the Josh Koscheck / Mike Swick range, while Hazelett would extend his winning streak to three and put himself at the top of the second tier of talent.

Rashad Evans (13-1-1) vs. Thiago Silva (14-1-0)

Both men lost to Lyoto Machida in 2009, Silva in January, a fight that propelled Machida into the title fight with Evans in May, where he took Rashad's belt and his soul, according to his mom.

While there is no denying the lethality of Thiago Silva's strikes, one thing that often gets overlooked is the trouble he's been in throughout his UFC career.

Yes, he clobbered Antonio Mendes, but the Brazilian kickboxer rocked the ATT product right off the bat in that bout, and failed to finish.

When he beat Houston Alexander, "The Assassin" was the guy who had just stopped Keith Jardine and Alessio Sakara. Now he's the guy who lost to Kimbo Slice by continually circling the outside of the cage.

Many will tell you James Irvin was winning their bout before blowing his knee, and Silva needed nearly two full rounds to stop Tomasz Drwal, a middleweight.

Can he knock Evans out with a single shot? Absolutely, but he's shown a vulnerability to a well placed punch and good gameplan in the past.

What compels fighters to ignore their greatest strength on a regular basis?

Rashad Evans, like many others, is a wrestler who has fallen in love with his striking. Trying to out-counter the best counter-striker in the company led to a devastating knockout at the hands of Lyoto Machida.

Now, Evans needs to get back on track after spending the last number of months involved with Season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter.

Chances are we'll see the fight with Quinton "Rampage" Jackson regardless of the outcome of this bout, but entering on a win would help put some steam back into the rivalry and turn the grudge match into a #1 contender fight capable of headlining a summer show.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 128-93-1

Preliminary Card

Rafaello Oliveira over John Gunderson - TKO, Round 2
Mike Pyle over Jake Ellenberger - Submission, Round 1
Mark Munoz over Ryan Jensen - TKO, Round 2
Dan Lauzon over Cole Miller - Split Decision
Martin Kampmann over Jacob Volkmann - TKO, Round 1

Main Card

Junior dos Santos over Gilbert Yvel - Submission, Round 1
Jim Miller over Duane Ludwig - Unanimous Decision
Joe Lauzon over Sam Stout - Submission, Round 2
Paul Daley over Dustin Hazelett - TKO, Round 1

And in the Main Event of the evening...

"Suga" Rashad Evans over Thiago Silva by TKO, Round 2.

Now touch gloves and come out swinging!




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MMA Super Saturday: Previews and Punch Drunk Predictions

If you're a fight fan - and aren't taking your wife out for her birthday dinner - tonight offers a difficult, albeit awesome, dilemma: which of the two exciting events taking place tonight do you watch?

As discussed earlier in the week, WEC 45 hits the mats at The Pearl at The Palms and airs on Versus, while Strikeforce: Evolution invades the HP Pavilion in the company's San Jose backyard.

Since there isn't much time before the preliminary bouts get underway (sorry, only so many days of Christmas shopping left...) and the main card for the WEC show was covered in the aforementioned piece, we'll tackle the Strikeforce main card and then make with the Punch Drunk Predictions.

Sound good?

Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal (6-0) vs. "Iron" Mike Whitehead (24-7-0)

Mo Lawal is easily one of the Top 5 Most Entertaining Fighters in the sport today; his interviews are always loaded with awesome soundbytes, his entrances are priceless and he just might be the most self-confident man on the face of the Earth.

The former three-time Senior National Wrestling champion takes a big step up in facing the veteran Whitehead, but he's been extremely impressive and downright dominant at times through his first six fights.

Whitehead is a former TUF contestant who is extremely difficult to finish. The former Miletich Fighting Systems fighter is 18-2 through his last 20 fights, but those numbers are a little deceiving.

Much like Paul Buentello last weekend at UFC 107, Whitehead feels like he's been around forever and while many know his name, he hasn't really beaten anyone of great consequence for quite some time.

Each time he enters the cage with someone of considerable skill and name recognition (Renato Sobral, Keith Jardine, Brandon Vera), he comes out on the wrong side of things. While he has racked up wins over the likes of Zak Jensen, Ruben Villareal and Kevin Randleman during that streak, none are as talented as Lawal.

Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (10-2-0, 1 NC) vs. Matt "The Law" Lindland (21-6-0)

While Mike Whitehead feels like he's been around forever, Matt Lindland has literally been around forever.

The 39-year-old is one of the founding members of the legendary Team Quest, was a UFC regular all through the company's dark ages, and has fought everyone from Pat Miletich and Murilo Bustamante, to Fedor and Vitor Belfort.

An Olympic silver medalist in Greco-Roman wrestling (Sydney, 2000), Lindland normally prefers to bring a fight to the floor and go from there, either grinding out a decision, sinking in a submission or getting a stoppage.

Unfortunately, bringing the fight to the floor is the best course of action for "Jacare" as well. The Black House member is one of the top jiu jitsu players in the sport today, winning this year's Abu Dhabi Combat Club Superfight over Robert Drysdale.

Souza hasn't faced nearly the same level of competition as Lindland, nor does he have the experience of the 39-year-old, but he also doesn't have the wear-and-tear of close to 30 fights and 13 years of punishment to contend with. Additionally, while Lindland has numerous outside interests that take up portions of his time, Souza is a fighter and a fighter only.

Josh "The Punk" Thomson (16-2-0) vs. "El Nino" Gilbert Melendez (16-2-0)

Boasting identical records and each holding a portion of the Strikeforce Lightweight title, Thomson and Melendez meet in their long-awaited rematch that should be the main event of the evening.

The first time they met, Thomson dominated Melendez, winning away the lightweight title via Unanimous Decision in June 2008. Since that time, Thomson has suffered twice as many serious injuries as he's had fights. That said, you don't go 16-2 by being the kind of guy who can't overcome an extended layoff.

While "The Punk" has been on the shelf, Melendez has taken up the mantle of being the most dominant lightweight on the Strikeforce roster. He earned the Interim title by knocking out Rodrigo Damm, then defended the belt and avenged his first career loss by beating Mitsuhiro Ishida back in August.

Now, the Scrap Pack member will be looking to avenge another loss and unify the lightweight title.

Cung Le (6-0-0) vs. Scott "Hands of Steel" Smith (17-6-0)

Earlier this week, Cung Le told all of us Keyboard Warriors to "keep clicking" when talking with Heavy.com about this bout against the heavy-handed Smith.

Well, here goes, Cung:

There are a whole lot of more compelling and competitive matchups for you in your return, but Strikeforce wants to give you fights where you won't be forced to go to the mat, unless it's to follow your opponent there after one of your fancy San Shou throws.

Scott Smith is a journeyman with heavy hands, that's about it. If he's such a challenging fight, how come the biggest wins of his career to date are his last win over Benji Radich - in a fight he was getting clobbered in - and his memorable knockout of Pete Sell from The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale?

The dumbass fans that boo whenever a fight goes to the ground may not have any interest in seeing "Jacare" and Jake Shields in what you called "a grappling match," but some of us certainly do. In fact, we want to see it more than we want to see you get hand-feed another guy who will be willing to stand-and-trade with you.

And by the way - when you win a title and then take nearly two years off to make mediocre movies, maybe you shouldn't wax all philosophical about the fans and how you deliver fights they really want to see?

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 128-93-1

Strikeforce: Evolution

AJ Fonseca over Alex Crispim via Split Decision
Bobby Stack over Alex Trevino via Unanimous Decision
Luis Mendoza over Juan Nunez via TKO, Round 1
Bryan Travers over Daisuke Nakamura via Unanimous Decision
Scott Lighty over Antwain Britt via TKO, Round 2

Muhammed Lawal over Mike Whitehead via Unanimous Decision
Ronaldo Souza over Matt Lindland via Submission, Round 2
Gilbert Melendez over Josh Thomson via TKO, Round 3
Cung Le over Scott Smith via TKO, Round 1

WEC 45

Jameel Massouh over Erik Koch via Submission, Round 2
Kyle Dietz over Brad Pickett via Submission, Round 1
Brandon Visher over Courtney Buck via TKO, Round 1
Muhsin Corbbrey over Zack Micklewright via Submission, Round 2
Anthony Pettis over Bart Palaszewski via TKO, Round 2

Takeya Mizugaki over Scott Jorgensen via Unanimous Decision
Rani Yayha over Joseph Benavidez via Submission, Round 2
Anthony Njokuani over Chris Horodecki via TKO, Round 3
Donald Cerrone over Ed Ratcliff via Submission, Round 1

Now touch gloves and come out swinging!















Continue reading...

UFC 107 Punch Drunk Predictions

The weekend is finally here and a great card of fights is before us, meaning another round of Punch Drunk Predictions are ready to go.

After a couple cards of making like "Smooth" Jimmy Apollo from The Simpsons - "If you're right 52% of the time, you're wrong 48% of the time." - UFC 107 is another one of those lineups that can give a guy trying to improve his winning percentage fits.

Every fight on the undercard is conceivably a coin flip situation - though I'm not tossing any quarters in the air this morning - while the pay-per-view portion of things can either go 100% according to Hoyle (or Kyte, as the case may be) or completely pear-shaped.

Either way, we're in for a great night of fights.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 121-89-1

Preliminary Card

TJ Grant over Kevin Burns via Submission, Round 2
Edgar Garcia over DaMarques Johnson via TKO, Round 3
Lucio Linhares over Rousimar Palhares via Split Decision
Johny Hendricks over Ricardo Funch via TKO, Round 1
Shane Nelson over Matt Wiman via TKO, Round 1
Wilson Gouveia over Alan Belcher via Submission, Round 2

Main Card

Stefan Struve over Paul Buentello via Submission, Round 2
Kenny Florian over Clay Guida via Submission, Round 2
Jon Fitch over Mike Pierce via Jon Fitch / Unanimous Decision (the two are officially synonymous in my books until Fitch gets a finish)
Frank Mir over Cheick Kongo via Submission, Round 1

And in the Main Event of the Evening...

BJ Penn over Diego Sanchez via Unanimous Decision to retain the UFC Lightweight title.

Bonus Bonus Picks

Fight of the Night: Penn vs. Sanchez
KO of the Night: Edgar Garcia
Submission of the Night: Kenny Florian

Now touch gloves and come out swingin!





Continue reading...

TUF 10 Finale Punch Drunk Predictions

We've hit you with all the previews and breakdowns and analysis imaginable, meaning the only thing left on the schedule is taking the plunge and making some picks.

One pick I'm certain of is that this will not be the last we see of Kimbo Slice inside the Octagon, regardless of the outcome of his meeting with Houston Alexander.

As much as it pains me, the guy is a monster draw and while a win will certainly propel him onto a pay-per-view card early in the new year, a loss isn't going to stop the UFC from continuing to capitalize on Kimbo's popularity.

While I agree with Matt Lindland's hope that the loser of this fight plummets into obscurity, never to be over-hyped again, the truth is that if that person is Kimbo, "The Law" won't get his wish.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 116-84-1

Preliminary Card

Mark Bocek over Joe Brammer via Submission, Round 2
John Howard over Dennis Hallman via Unanimous Decision
Rodney Wallace over Brian Stann via T/KO, Round 2
Justin Wren over Jon Madsen via Submission, Round 1
James McSweeney over Darrill Schoonover via T/KO, Round 2

Main Card

Matt Mitrione over Marcus Jones via T/KO, Round 1
Frankie Edgar over Matt Veach via Unanimous Decision
Houston Alexander over Kimbo Slice via T/KO, Round 1
Jon Jones over Matt Hamill via Unanimous Decision

And in the Main Event of the Evening...

Brendan Schaub over Roy Nelson via T/KO, Round 2 to become the new Ultimate Fighter.

Now touch gloves and come out swinging!







Continue reading...

UFC 106 Punch Drunk Predictions

In the words of Bruce Buffer, "Iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit's (big inhale) TIIIIMMMMEEEE!"

UFC 106 is upon us and despite numerous injuries, illnesses and last minute decisions, this is still a pretty solid fight card and one that will help to bring clarity to some muddied division moving forward.

As has now become custom, before the picks comes the quick hit coverage of the preliminary fights, including Paulo Thiago and Jacob Volkmann which will now be on the PPV portion.

Enjoy the fights!

The Prelims

George Sotiropoulos (10-2-0) vs. Jason Dent (19-9-0)

Dent was a member of Team USA on Season 9 of the Ultimate Fighter and is getting his second go round with the UFC. Sotiropoulos is also a TUF alum (Season 6... yikes!) who looked very good in his debut at 155 last time out in a battle of the Georges.

Sotiropoulos is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and a fairly large lightweight, standing 5'10" and having competed previously at welterweight. While Dent is a submission guy as well, he simply isn't on the same level as the fluid Aussie.

Caol Uno (25-12-4) vs. Fabricio Camoes (10-4-0)

The debuting Camoes is a BJJ black belt under Royler Gracie and apparently once went 27 minutes with Anderson Silva in a bare-knuckled fight when he was 17-years-old. No word on whether he's killed a bear with a knife and fork like Aleks Emelianenko...

Uno is a long-time veteran and one of the most respected lightweights in the game. He has four losses in his last seven fights, including a difficult decision against Spencer Fisher in his return at UFC 99. The others are against some of the best the sport has to offer: Shinya Aoki, Gesias "JZ Calvan" Cavalcante and Andre "Dida" Amade.

If you like grappling, you'll love this fight, as these two will surely transition through attempts and reversals for the majority of the fight.

Brock Larson (26-3-0) vs. Brian Foster (12-4-0)

Going to keep this one short and sweet.

Brian Foster lost last time out to Rick Story, who secured an arm triangle from inside Foster's half guard, while Larson is coming off a decision loss to Mike Pierce and has more submission wins than Foster has professional fights.

Please, feel free to do the math.

Kendall Grove (10-6-0) vs. Jake Rosholt (6-1-0)

Let the requisite "Will Kendall Grove be the first Ultimate Fighter winner released if he loses this fight?" discussion begin. Just ignore the guy in the background yelling something about Travis Lutter.

Jokes and speculation aside, Grove needs a win here in a bad way, as four losses in six fights usually doesn't help you maintain employment, Ultimate Fighter winner or not.

Rosholt looked okay against Chris Leben last time out and is still a good-looking prospect at 185 thanks to a great wrestling pedigree and strong training camp led by Boba Fett, Team Takedown's Mark Laimon, who promises to break out more from the Ecko Star Wars collection tonight.

Ben Saunders (7-1-2) vs. Marcus Davis (16-5-0)

This one is intriguing because it could go one of two ways.

Option 1: Davis smashes on Saunders the way Mike Swick did in Germany, pummeling the big man into submission under a flurry of precision boxing and power shots.

Option 2: Saunders uses his massive height and reach advantage, keeps Davis at bay and then locks in that deadly Thai clinch we saw against Brandon Wolff and turns the face of the "Irish Hand Grenade" into Sheppard's Pie.

Either way, should be a slugfest.

Paulo Thiago (11-1-0) vs. Jacob Volkmann (9-0-0)

It's always a risky proposition picking fights involving fighters you don't know much about. It's no help when the only interesting information that can be gleaned about Volkmann's career to date is that his ring name is "Christmas" and he trains with Brock Lesnar & Co. at Minnesota Martial Arts.

On the other side of the cage, Paulo Thiago has been extremely impressive in two trips into the Octagon, knocking out Josh Koscheck in his debut and going the full 15 with Jon Fitch at UFC 100.

What impressed me most is the combination of those two fights, as we've seen a deadly uppercut drop Koscheck and some slick submission work against Fitch, neither of which bode well for the newcomer.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 111-80

Preliminary Card
George Sotiropoulos over Jason Dent - Submission, Round 2
Caol Uno over Fabricio Camoes - Split Decision
Brock Larson over Brian Foster - Submission, Round 1
Jake Rosholt over Kendall Grove - Unanimous Decision
Marcus Davis over Ben Saunders - TKO, Round 2

Main Card
Amir Sadollah over Phil Baroni - Submission, Round 2
Antonio Rogerio "Minotoro" Nogueira over Luis Cane - Unanimous Decision
Paulo Thiago over Jacob Volkmann - Submission, Round 1
Josh Koscheck over Anthony "Rumble" Johnson - Split Decision

And in the Main Event of the evening...

"The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Tito Ortiz over Forrest Griffin via Unanimous Decision.

Now touch gloves and come out swinging!

Continue reading...

WEC 44 Punch Drunk Predictions

Is it just me or does it feel like we've been rattling off a lot of prediction pieces in the last couple weeks?

So far so good with an impressive November loaded with fight cards, as Fedor did well on CBS and UFC 105 was a respectable way to spend a Saturday evening last week.

Now, we're mid-week and dropping in on WEC 44, live tonight on Versus and headlined by a Featherweight title bout between champion Mike Thomas Brown and dynamic challenger Jose Aldo.

The breakdowns for the main card and the preliminary set have already been done. Now it's time to get to the picks.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 104-77

Preliminary Card

Frank Gomez over Seth Dikun via Submission, Round 2
Ricardo Lamas over James Krause via TKO Round 1
Antonio Banuelos over Kenji Osawa via Unanimous Decision
Cub Swanson over John Franchi via TKO Round 2
LC Davis over Diego Nunes via Split Decision
Kamal Shalorus over Will Kerr via TKO Round 2

Main Card

Danny Castillo over Shane Roller via TKO Round 2
Karen Darabedyan over "Razor" Rob McCullogh via Split Decision
Leonard Garcia over Manny Gamburyan via TKO Round 1

And in the Main Event of the evening...

Mike Thomas Brown over Jose Aldo via TKO (Round 4) to retain the WED Featherweight title.

Now touch gloves and come out swinging!


Continue reading...

UFC 105 Punch Drunk Predictions

The night of free fights in as many Saturday's is finally upon us, as UFC 105 hits the air on Spike TV this evening from the Manchester Evening New Arena in Manchester, England.

While not necessarily the strongest international event in UFC history, this card has a similar feel to UFC 103. The recent Dallas event was void of a title fight (as is this one), but presented a number of interesting match-ups (as does this one) and turned into a pleasant surprise of a show.

Before breaking out the predictions themselves, a quick tour through the undercard so you know what to look for if we get more than the originally scheduled five fights.

Andre Winner (12-3-1) vs. Rolando Delgado (11-4-1)

Winner fell to fellow Brit Ross Pearson in the finals of TUF 9, while Delgado was bounced from TUF 8 in the quarterfinals by the infamous Junie Browning. Winner has fast hands and something to prove, fighting on his home turf and looking to prove he belongs in the UFC, six-figure TUF contract or not.

Alexander Gustafsson (8-0-0) vs. Jared Hamman (10-1-0)

Hamman trains with UFC veteran Vladimir Matyushenko and holds wins over solid competitors Travis Wiuff, Rogent Llorent and Aaron Rosa, as well as splitting a pair of fights with B.J. Penn disciple Poai Suganuma. Gustafsson has made relatively short work of a number of fighters few outside of Scandinavia have heard of. Remove coin from pocket, flip in the air...

Paul Kelly (10-1-0) vs. Dennis Siver (14-6-0)

Both are staples on overseas cards with Kelly having the more impressive performances to date. This will be his second fight at 155 after starting his career at welterweight and he looked solid the first time out. Siver has won three straight since getting knocked out in memorable fashion by Melvin Guillard.

Nick Osipczak (4-0-0) vs. Matt Riddle (3-0-0)

When all is said and done, don't be surprised if Nick Osipczak is the top fighter to emerge from Season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter. Despite losing in the semifinals, the Brit has shown solid all-around skills and has a world of potential. Riddle has earned three decisions in three fights, something Osipczak pointed out in the build-up to this bout. This one is a little bit personal.

Terry Etim (13-2-0) vs. Shannon Gugerty (12-3-0)

Etim is fast becoming the lightweight poster boy for overseas shows, as this marks his seventh UFC fight, five of which ended in his favor. Gugerty has a pair of wins sandwiching a loss to Spencer Fisher and has the talents to upset the local favorite. Whoever sinks in a tight submission first wins.

Paul Taylor (10-4-1, 1 NC) vs. John Hathaway (11-0-0)

Taylor is staple of the UFC's cross-Atlantic adventures and has a penchant for hearing the final bell. Hathaway is an up-and-coming Brit who has shown good all-around skills in his two UFC fights. Taylor is hard to stop standing, so look for Hathaway to take this to the ground and work for a submission.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 97-73 (.570)

Preliminary Card

Andre Winner over Rolando Delgado, TKO Round 1
Alexander Gustafsson over Jared Hamman, TKO Round 1
Paul Kelly over Dennis Siver, Unanimous Decision
Nick Osipczak over Matt Riddle, Submission Round 2
Terry Etim over Shannon Gugerty, TKO Round 2
John Hathaway over Paul Taylor, Submission Round 2

Main Card

Aaron Riley over Ross Pearson, Unanimous Decision
James Wilks over Matt Brown, Submission Round 2
Denis Kang over Michael Bisping, Submission Round 2
Dan Hardy over Mike Swick, TKO Round 1

And in the Main Event of the Evening...

Randy "The Natural" Couture over Brandon "The Truth" Vera via Second Round TKO

Now touch gloves and come out swinging!


Continue reading...

Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers Punch Drunk Predictions

Tonight's the night!

If it hasn't been said enough throughout the MMA community this week, let me remind you one more time:

Anyone who has even a passing interest in Mixed Martial Arts needs to be watching this card on CBS tonight. Not just because it's Fedor and a great card and it's free (but those are three pretty solid reasons, you have to admit...) but because if you're a real fight fan, you want to see a second Strikeforce CBS card and perhaps that mythical unicorn Dana White always mentions - the UFC on network TV.

Don't get me wrong: I'm always going to watch fights, whether I have to pay for them or not, but if this sport is every going to hit that level of mainstream acceptance that so many are itching for, it's not going to come at $50 a pop on PPV. It's going to come through network TV... starting tonight.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 91-70

Preliminary Card
Christian Uflacker over Jonathan Novaes (Submission, Round 1)
Louis Taylor over Nate Moore (TKO, Round 2)
Shamar Bailey over John Kolosci (TKO, Round 1)
Jeff Curran over Sam Thao (Submission, Round 2)
Mark Miller over Deray Davis (TKO, Round 2)
Roxanne Modafferi over Marloes Coenen (Unanimous Decision)

Main Card
Fabricio Werdum over Antonio Silva (Submission, Round 3)
Gegard Mousasi over Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (Submission, Round 1)
Jason "Mayhem" Miller over Jake Shields (Split Decision)

And in the Main Event of the Evening...

"The Last Emperor" Fedor Emelianenko over Brett "The Grim" Rogers via first round submission to retain the WAMMA Heavyweight title.

Now touch gloves and come out swinging!


Continue reading...

UFC 104 Punch Drunk Predictions

Despite being in the middle of moving across the province of British Columbia and having very limited access (or time, for that matter), Saturday night marks the return of the UFC after a longer-than-normal hiatus, so I thought I would make a brief return too.

With everything in boxes, the usual week-long Fight Week Previews series has been on break as well, but have no fear, this installment of the Punch Drunk Predictions features a quick synopsis of my thoughts on each fight.

It also carries with it a challenge, as fellow Bleacher Report writer Darren Wong has thrown down the gauntlet, looking to claim the bragging rights for successful selections for UFC 104. Never one to back down, I've gladly accepted and look forward to gloating about my win later this week.

Fight Week Previews - The Abridged Moving Version
(all records as per UFC.com)

Stefan Struve (21-3) vs. Chase Gormley (6-0)

Struve has the vast experience despite being just 21-years-old. Additinoally, he's fought twice under the bright lights of the UFC, losing his debut to Junior dos Santos before submitting Dennis Stojnic at UFC 99.

However, Stojnic cut "The Skyscraper" badly in that fight and while Gormley is short on experience, he's got the power to put his Dutch opponent on the canvas.

Kyle Kingsbury (7-2-0, 1 NC) vs. Razak Al-Hassan (7-1-0)

Really, does anyone outside of the Kingsbury and Al-Hassan calling circles care who wins this fight? Kingsbury is another former TUF contestant who hasn't found success in the Octagon, while Al-Hassan's debut had him on the wrong end of a very gruesome looking armbar courtesy of Steve Cantwell.

Reach in your pocket and pull out a coin.

Jorge Rivera (16-7) vs. Rob Kimmons (22-4)

Rivera is a seasoned veteran who has been in the cage with a long list of quality opponents. Now he's facing Rob Kimmons, whose biggest win to date is either over Joe Vedepo or Rob Yundt.

Yushin Okami (24-4) vs. Chael Sonnen (24-10-1)

Okami certainly deserves better than being buried on the undercard, having compiled a 7-1 record in the UFC and once being in line for a title shot against Anderson Silva, whom he holds a DQ victory over.

That being said, he hasn't been able to stay healthy and has to work his way back up the ladder, starting with Sonnen, who enters the fight off a dominating upset win over Dan Miller at UFC 98.

Antoni Hardonk (8-5) vs. Pat Barry (4-1)

In the UFC's unofficial first kickboxing match, the veteran Hardonk takes on a fellow leg kick enthusiast and former training partner in the less experienced Barry.

This fight will be entertaining while standing, but painful if it somehow hits the floor, as Barry's ground game is almost nonexistent and Hardonk isn't much better.

Get that coin you had out earlier and give it another flip. Or, use this time to refill your cup and get a few snacks before things get interesting.

Ryan Bader (10-0) vs. Eric Schafer (13-3-2)

"Darth" Bader was impressive in his post-TUF debut against veteran ATT member Carmelo Marrero and the win was made even more noteworthy upon learning the Arizona Combats Sports product tore his MCL and PCL during the fight.

Schafer is a BJJ black Belt under Pedro Sauer riding a two fight winning streak since returning to the UFC. That being said, Houston Alexander and Antonio Mendes do not possess the strength and promise of the former two-time All American from Arizona State.

Anthony Johnson (7-2) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11-3)

Yes, Anthony Johnson is a tremendous athlete and has a very bright future in the sport. That being said, Yoshida represents a big step up in competition for "Rumble" after having earned wins over Kevin Burns, Luigi Fioravanti and Tommy Speer.

While Yoshida hasn't defeated anyone of great consequence either (War Machine and Brandon Wolff), his move to Greg Jackson's School of Awesomeness in MMA is enough to pique my interest in this opening match-up of the broadcast.

Joe Stevenson (35-10) vs. Spencer Fisher (24-4)

Speaking of guys who have moved to Albuquerque... Stevenson was back to the Joe Stevenson of old last time out against Nathan Diaz, utilizing his strong wrestling base and not getting into a boxing match where he is can get beat.

While Fisher has solid skills on the ground as well, his bread and butter is standing and banging, as he's got a good chin and enough weapons on his feet to trade with the best the lightweight division has to offer.

Gleison Tibau (29-6) vs. Josh Neer (25-8-1)

Just because they don't belong in the middle of the PPV broadcast doesn't mean these two don't deserve coverage.

Tibau is replacing Sean Sherk and brings a vast edge on the ground against Neer, who was outwrestled and ultimately defeated by Kurt Pellegrino at UFC 101 using a very similar ground-related approached.

Cain Velasquez (6-0) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-6)

Don't get me wrong: I think Cain Velasquez has as bright a future in the UFC as just about anyone, but he's not there yet in my books. He's got as many career fights as Rothwell has losses.

While that may not mean much to some, the former Affliction and IFL heavyweight has far more experience and has been to deeper waters than the Arizona State standout has ever faced. Cheick Kongo and his deficient ground game were a perfect opponent for Velasquez last time out, but now he needs to step it up a notch and I don't know if he's truly ready for the next level.

Lyoto Machida (15-0) vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-3)

My analysis of this fight is actually quite simple:

Lyoto Machida has never been beaten, never lost a round in the UFC and barely gets touched when he steps into the cage, while Shogun looked horrible against a fighting fossil (Mark Coleman) and earned the title shot by defeating a defensively-deficient Chuck Liddell.

You don't get to 15-0 by accident... The Machida Era continues.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 86-64

Preliminary Card
Chase Gormley over Stefan Struve (TKO R1)
Razak Al-Hassan over Kyle Kingsbury (TKO R2)
Jorge Rivera over Rob Kimmons (Submission R1)
Yushin Okami over Chael Sonnen (Unanimous Decision)
Antoni Hardonk over Pat Barry (Submission R1)
Ryan Bader over Eric Schafer (TKO R2)

Main Card
Yoshiyuki Yoshida over Anthony Johnson (Submission R2)
Joe Stevenson over Spencer Fisher (Unanimous Decision)
Gleison Tibau over Josh Neer (Submission R3)
Ben Rothwell over Cain Velasquez (TKO R2)

And in the Main Event of the Evening...

Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida over Mauricio "Shogun" Rua via TKO, Round 3 to retain the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship.

Now touch gloves and come out swingin!










Continue reading...

WEC 43 Punch Drunk Predictions: The Curse Ends Tonight!

More than a day late, but certainly not dollars short, WEC 43 will finally go down tonight in San Antonio, Texas featuring an Interim Lightweight Title bout between Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone and Ben "Smooth" Henderson.

Overall this is a pretty solid card; some of the preliminary card fights certainly have a chance to outshine a couple of the main card fights and the main event will undoubtedly be awesome.

In addition to a great lineup, WEC 43 will also prove the end of the Keyboard Kimura Curse, as interviewee Scott "Young Guns" Jorgensen will have his hand raised in victory over former Ultimate Fighter cast-off Noah Thomas.

Good luck Scotty... now onto the picks.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 81-59

Preliminary Card
Javier Vazquez over Deividas Taurosevicius
Charlie Valencia over Coty Wheeler
Manny Tapia over Eddie Wineland
Wagnney Fabiano over Mackens Semerzier
Scott Jorgensen over Noah Thomas
Anthony Njokuani over Muhsin Corbbrey

Main Card
Raphael Assuncao over Yves Jabouin
Damacio Page over Will Campuzano
Rich Crunkilton Jr. over Dave Jansen

And in the Main Event of the evening...

Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone over Ben "Smooth" Henderson.

Now touch gloves and come out swingin!

Continue reading...

UFC 103 Punch Drunk Predictions

Tonight marks the end of a busy week here at Keyboard Kimura.

Between delivering the Fight Week Preview series, as well as some interviews and editorials and the Punch Drunk Predictions on UFN 19 on Wednesday, twelve posts have already come off the figurative presses.

Hopefully, this round of fearless forecasting will serve as Lucky #13...

The Prelims: Fast and Dirty

Rob Emerson vs. Rafael dos Anjos
The former cast member from Season 5 of The Ultimate Fighter was choked out by Kurt Pellegrino last time out, while the Brazilian black belt gave Tyson Griffin fits in a fight that was closer than the scores showed.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Igor Pokrajac
One is a crafty veteran returning to the UFC after an extended hiatus that saw him clean out the IFL Light Heavyweight division, the other is Mirko Cro Cop's training partner who has beaten exactly no one of relevance in his career.

Eliot Marshall vs. Jason Brilz
One of the better undercard bouts of the night, Brilz is riding a ten-fight winning streak and hasn't lost since 2001. Marshall is a legitimate BJJ black belt and solid on the ground. Training with Greg Jackson and company in New Mexico doesn't hurt either.

Rick Story vs. Brian Foster
If this was three or four years ago, Foster would be the easy pick just because he trains with Matt Hughes and the H.I.T. Squad team. But it isn't 2005 anymore, is it? Remember how impressive Jake Ellenberger looked against Carlos Condit on Wednesday night? Story beat him.

Rafaello Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz
Oliveira was originally slated to fight on the Affliction: Trilogy card against Japanese star Takanori Gomi. Nik Lentz is no Takanori Gomi, not even the less impressive version we've seen in recent years.

Jim Miller vs. Steve Lopez
One half of one of the two sets of "Fighting Miller Boys" in MMA, Jersey Jim's two career loses came from going toe-to-toe with Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar. Do you see either of them on the other side of the cage?

Drew McFedries vs. Tomasz Drwal
Somebody is going to get KTFO in this one. Drwal is younger, stronger and making the drop to his more natural fighting weight of 185 for the first time. Drew McFedries is Drew McFedries.

Efrain Escudero vs. Cole Miller
The winner of Season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter had a tough time making weight and will have an even tougher time in his post-TUF debut, as Cole Miller, half of the other set of "Fighting Miller Boys" competing in MMA is a slick submission specialist and should get the win, especially because he decided against doing an interview with me for some reason.

You got in-depth coverage of each of the main card fights already this week, so it's on to the picks.

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 73-55

Preliminary Card
Rafael dos Anjos over Rob Emerson, Submission R2
Vladimir Matyushenko over Igor Pokjarac, TKO R2
Eliot Marshall over Jason Brilz, Unanimous Decision
Rick Story over Brian Foster, TKO R3
Rafaello Oliveira over Nik Lentz, Unanimous Decision
Jim Miller over Steve Lopez, Submission R1
Tomasz Drwal over Drew McFedries, TKO R1
Cole Miller over Efrain Escudero, Submission R2

Main Card
Tyson Griffin over Hermes Franca, Tyson Griffin Special (Unanimous Decision)
Josh Koscheck over Frank Trigg, Submission R2 (Probably a Rear Naked Choke)
Martin Kampmann over Paul Daley, Submission R2 (See above)
Junior dos Santos over Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic, KO R1 (Uppercut of Doom)

And in the Main Event of the Evening...

Rich "Ace" Franklin over Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort by Unanimous Decision... especially since Belfort had a bitch of a time making weight.

Now touch gloves and come out swingin!


Continue reading...

Punch Drunk Predictions for Ultimate Fight Night 19

Before Kimbo and company hit the airwaves with Season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter, a better-than-normal Ultimate Fight Night goes down in Oklahoma City.

All four of the televised fights are good quality, as is the rest of the card. While we're normally treated to one, maybe two decent matchups, we've got four solid scraps lined up with more waiting in the wings if the two hour time slot hasn't been filled.

Unfortunately, time hasn't been on my side this week and full breakdowns of the fights isn't in the cards. You can get all that good stuff over at Watch Kalib Run.

We're going picks and picks only this time around...

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 66-52

Preliminary Card
Ryan Jensen over Steve Steinbeiss
Brock Larson over Mike Pierce
Jeremy Stephens over Justin Buchholz
Sam Stout over Phillipe Nover
Jay Silva over C.B. Dollaway
Mike Pyle over Chris Wilson
Steve Cantwell over Brian Stann

Main Card
Nate Quarry over Tim Credeur
Carlos Condit over Jake Ellenberger
Gray Maynard over Roger Huerta

And in the Main Event of the evening...

Nathan Diaz over Melvin Guillard

Now touch gloves and come out swingin!
Continue reading...

UFC 102 Punch Drunk Predictions

Saturday has finally arrived, and with it comes UFC 102 from the Rose Garden Arena in Portland, Oregon.

While originally not sold on this fight card, a week full of previews and pondering has left me more excited for this card than any in recent memory, save for UFC 100. All five fights on the telecast have something to be offered and there are more than a couple preliminary card bouts that look intriguing.

The fight I'm most interested in? Tim Hague versus Todd Duffee; not because I'm Canadian and so is Hague, but because I interviewed him earlier in the week and fighters I interview prior to fights are currently 0-1.

Time to see if the curse continues...

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 60-47

Preliminary Card
Evan Dunham over Marcus Aurelio - Unanimous Decision
Mark Munoz over Nick Catone - TKO, R1
Tim Hague over Todd Duffee - Unanimous Decision
Mike Russow over Justin McCully - Submission, R1
Gabriel Gonzaga over Chris Tuchscherer - Submission, R1
Aaron Simpson over Ed Herman - Split Decision

Main Card
Krzysztof Soszynski over Brandon Vera - TKO, R2
Nate Marquardt over Demian Maia - TKO, R2
Chris Leben over Jake Rosholt - TKO, R1
Keith Jardine over Thiago Silva - Unanimous Decision

And in the Main Event of the Evening...

Randy "The Natural" Couture over Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira by Unanimous Decision.

Now touch gloves and come out fighting!

Continue reading...

Punch Drunk Predictions: Strikeforce

After what feels like a week away (it's only been three days) battling the flu, health has finally returned to me enough to climb back behind my keyboard to hit you with some Punch Drunk Predictions for tonight's historic Strikeforce fight card.

Last week was a busy week for the PDP's and after my 5-5 performance at UFC 101, I vowed to deliver 8 wins from WEC 42 and d'you know what?

8 wins, 3 losses, bringing the record a little closer to respectability and making me feel good about my picks for this card which is full of fights that could certainly go either way.

Mike Kyle (12-6-1) vs. Fabricio Werdum (11-4-1)
Kyle reminded me of a bigger version of Drew McFedries; he's got lethal knockout power and some decent wins, but he never seems to string together impressive performances.

As for Werdum, this will be his first opportunity to erase the memory of Junior dos Santos literally knocking him out of the UFC back in October and while Kyle has the punching power to deliver a repeat, the former Pride and UFC veteran has too much experience to let that happen again.

Doesn't he?

Jay Hieron (17-4-0) vs. Jesse Taylor (13-3-0)
I've got to give it up to Jesse Taylor for a minute.

Since getting tossed from the TUF Finale a few years back and getting submitted by C.B. Dollaway, Taylor has fought anywhere and everywhere while piling up seven straight wins. While he hasn't always been beating name brand opposition, seven wins since October is still pretty impressive.

With that out of the way, Jay Hieron is the toughest test to date for the Team Quest fighter and too much to handle in my books. The former IFL Welterweight champ has a wealth of experience against tougher competition than Taylor has faced and comes in on a five fight winning streak of his own.

Gilbert Melendez (15-2-0) vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida (18-5-1)
Despite Josh Thomson's late removal from this fight, "El Nino" is going to get a chance at redemption anyway, facing the man to hand him his first career loss, "The Endless Fighter" Mitsuhiro Ishida.

Melendez has been vocal about the late replacement and some are speculating that Strikeforce has put the Interim Lightweight champion at a disadvantage heading into this fight. While both views could be correct, true champions overcome the obstacles before them and this is Melendez' chance to prove himself as a true champion.

Ishida is a strong wrestler who had gone to battle against some top talent over the years, including Vitor "Shaolin" Ribeiro and Takanori Gomi, while scoring a Unanimous Decision over Melendez on New Year's Eve 2007.

Renato "Babalu" Sobral (35-8-0) vs. Gegard Mousasi (25-2-1)
Youth versus experience.

Normally, I would side with experience, especially when that experienced competitor is Renato Sobral. But the youth is Gegard "The Dreamcatcher" Mousasi and I'm pretty certain that this will be his North American coming out party.

"Babalu" has become a much smarter fighter in his post-UFC career, finding his spots and executing perfectly in both his Strikeforce win over Bobby Southworth (got inside his range, landed some elbows, got the win) and his last Affliction fight against Sokoudjou (weathered the typical early Soko burst, submitted his tired ass in Round 2).

Then there is Mousasi, who is riding a 12-fight winning streak at the age of 24, including winning the DREAM Middleweight Grand Prix and currently sitting as the favorite to win the company's Open Weight "Super Hulk" Tournament as well. You may not have known his name before today, but you shouldn't forget it. He's the real deal like Holyfield.

Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos" (7-1-0) vs. Gina Carano (7-0-0)
The fate of Women's MMA doesn't hang in the balance.

Regardless of the outcome, Gina Carano will remain the Face of WMMA.

But even those two realities doesn't stop this from being an historic event and the fight I have been most looking forward to in this outstanding month of Mixed Martial Arts.

Cyborg is a powerful, aggressive, dominant fighter who has clobbered nearly everyone who has been put before her, using her brute strength to overwhelm her opponents.

Carano is more of a technician, utilizing a wider array of attacks and having shown the ability to grind out a win against tough opponents.

If it ends early, Cyborg will be the winner. If it ends later, Carano will have her hand raised. The question is which one will it be?

Punch Drunk Predictions
Record: 57-45 (That's better...)

Note: Since I have no real knowledge of any of the fighters on the undercard, making picks would really be a complete coin-flip situation and that is dumb to me, so I'm skipping them and sticking with what I know.

Fabricio Werdum over Mike Kyle by Submission, Round 2
Jay Hieron over Jesse Taylor by Unanimous Decision
Mitsuhiro Ishida over Gilbert Melendez by Unanimous Decision
Gegard Mousasi over Renato Sobral by TKO, R1

And in the Main Event of the Evening...

Gina "Conviction" Carano over Cris Cyborg by Submission, R3

Now touch gloves and come out swingin'...

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