Gray Maynard: Merit Over Marketability

Heading into his Ultimate Fight Night 20 Main Event against Nathan Diaz, Gray Maynard knew that a win over the brash TUF 5 winner would most likely mean a chance to challenge BJ Penn for the Lightweight Title.

Almost immediately after the Split Decision results were read in Maynard’s favor, the speculation started. The Internet lit up with fans and media alike asking, “Who Should Be Next in Line for BJ?” or something of that extent.

For many, it comes down to two men: Maynard and Frankie Edgar.

If those are the two in consideration, there is only one answer, and it’s not “The Answer.”

Yes, Frankie Edgar has the bigger “name brand” win in recent memory, defeating former champion Sean Sherk at UFC 98 in a bout that earned each fighter a Fight of the Night bonus. He collected the same bonus money for his recent submission of Matt Veach on the TUF 10 Finale as well.

While Maynard hasn’t cashed any bonus checks or beaten any former champions, he’s rattled off seven-straight wins in the UFC, and remains undefeated in his career. Included in that list of conquest is one Frank Edgar.

Now, it is well understood that the UFC is a business and fights are made as much on marketability and entertainment value for the fans, but choosing Edgar over Maynard would be an indication that records and results are only secondary.

When the two options are equal in virtually every area, picking the fighter who has the greater connection with the fans makes obvious sense. But when there is a clear deciding variable, like say a head-to-head win, the winner should be the one getting the title shot, shouldn’t he?

First, let me say this: regardless of who fights BJ Penn, they’re going to get beaten. Right now, “The Prodigy” is head-and-shoulders above everyone else in the UFC Lightweight division, and it will remain that way until further notice.

Though I understand that Maynard’s style of grinding out close wins and not really having a big connection with the fans plays a part in the decision-making process, overlooking his dominant win over Edgar in favor of a “more marketable” matchup is a mistake to me.

It would be like offering Martin Kampmann a chance at Georges St-Pierre’s welterweight belt, despite the fact that Paul Daley just destroyed him at UFC 103.

If Maynard’s victory over Edgar is less important than how well the UFC Marketing Department can sell the fight, the company risks sending a message that being able to sell yourself takes precedent over results.

Maynard certainly didn't offer up a highlight reel performance or any evidence that he can pry the Lightweight title from the hands of "The Prodigy," but are we really to believe that a man "The Bully" completely dominated would do any better?

The UFC needs to put merit over marketability and do the right thing like Spike Lee.

Give Gray Maynard the next Lightweight title shot.

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UFC Fight Night 20 Fight Analysis

Following up on Sunday's WEC 46 card, the UFC makes a rare Monday night appearance, landing at The Patriot Center in Fairfax, Virginia for Ultimate Fight Night 20.

The show is a showcase of Ultimate Fighter winners and contestants, as eight of the 22 fighters on the card were a part of the hit reality show. Three of those eight won the whole thing, as Nathan Diaz, Amir Sadollah and Efrain Escudero took home the six-figure contracts at the end of their respective seasons.

Each of those three winners has an interesting night ahead of them, as Sadollah looks to build some consistency against Brad Blackburn, Escudero tries to remain unbeaten against fellow undefeated lightweight Evan Dunham, and Diaz faces top contender Gray Maynard, a man he submitted en route to winning Season 5 two-and-a-half years ago.

Lots to discuss, so let's get to it.

Nick Catone (7-2-0) vs. Jesse Forbes (10-3-0)

Forbes was a member of Season 3 of The Ultimate Fighter, and makes his return to the UFC after going 10-2 fighting all over Canada and the US since losing to Matt Hamill.

For Catone, his UFC experience can't get any worse. Unbeaten when he signed with the company, he was originally slated to meet Amir Sadollah in his post-TUF debut, but that didn't happen. Instead, he was beaten by "Crazy" Tim Credeur, and has since taken a second-straight defeat courtesy of Mark Munoz at UFC 102.

Winner sticks around, loser goes home in the first fight of the night. No idea which of these two I'm backing as of yet.

Gerald Harris (13-2-0) vs. John Salter (4-0-0)

Sadollah seems to be a recurring theme for this event, as Harris was eliminated from Season 7 by the then-unknown "murse" despite being one of the favorites to win the show. He most recently claimed the Shark Fights Middleweight title over former WEC competitor Nissen Osterneck.

John Salter comes in as a very late replacement for Mike Massenzio, but has a solid wrestling base and a win over former UFC competitor and BJJ ace Roberto "Spider" Traven. A last minute call-up is usually a tough task, so expectations need to be hedged going into this bout.

Kyle Bradley (14-6-0, 1 NC) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (12-4-0)

The lone win of Bradley's UFC career came in controversial fashion, as many believe his bout with Philippe Nover was stopped prematurely by Yves Lavigne. Prior to that victory, Bradley was beaten up by Chris Lytle and Joe Lauzon.

Rafael dos Anjos is one of the most frustrating fighters for me to watch. He's got talent and an assortment of skills in the cage, but I can't shake the image of him catching Jeremy Stephens' super-telegraphed "Uppercut from Hell" with his face at UFC 91 out of my mind.

He looked great utilizing leg kicks and solid grappling against Rob Emerson last time out, and if he does the same against Bradley, he'll get a bump up in competition. Of course, he could also catch another punch in the mouth and fall like a house of cards.

Mike Guymon (11-2-0) vs. Rory MacDonald (9-0-0)

"The Joker" is a tough veteran who finally gets a chance to compete on the big stage after stringing together five-straight wins on the California King of the Cage circuit. Unfortunately, it might be a short-lived stay, as Guymon is facing an impressive 20-year-old Canadian who has had some KOTC success of his own.

Rory MacDonald is one of the Top 5 prospects in the sport, and has ran through everyone who ever stood across from him in the cage. The supremely self-confident kid from Kelowna, British Columbia recently knocked out former KOTC Light Heavyweight champ Nick Hincliffe in just his second fight at welterweight.

Nine fights, nine stoppages; "The Waterboy" is for real.

Thiago Tavares (14-3-0) vs. Nik Lentz (17-3-1)

Once upon a time, the Brazilian was viewed as a possible title contender in the lightweight division, but then three losses in four fights put a halt on those plans. Now, after a year off, Tavares returns to face a tough wrestler looking to earn his second straight win inside the Octagon.

Since he comes from the same Minnesota Martial Arts Academy as Brock Lesnar and Sean Sherk, you have to know Nik Lentz has a strong wrestling base. If you're not convinced, take a look at Lentz' debut win over Rafaello Oliveira, where the former Golden Gopher won the final two round with takedown after takedown.

Tavares is better on the ground than Oliveira, but a year away from the cage makes it hard to know what kind of performance he's going offer.

Rick Story (8-3-0) vs. Jesse Lennox (11-1-0)

My sleeper pick for Fight of the Night.

Story put on a great performance last time out against Brian Foster, earning Submission and Fight of the Night honors for the battle he ended with an arm triangle from inside Foster's halfguard. He also holds a win over Jake Ellenberger, a fighter who has been extremely impressive to date in the UFC.

Lennox was in a war last time out too, earning a TKO over Danillo Villefort due to a cut from an undetected and unintentional headbutt. Previous to that, the Miletich Fighting Systems product scored a win over Blas Avena in the WEC, and enters on a four-fight winning streak.

Chris Leben (18-6-0) vs. Jay Silva (5-2-0)

Raise your hand if you're sick of Chris Leben.

For the record, my hand is held high. There is no doubting his charisma or his punching power, but "The Crippler" can certainly be questioned on his dedication, integrity and overall interest in being a UFC competitor. The original bad boy of The Ultimate Fighter, Leben could be on his last legs with the company that made him a household name having lost two-in-a-row.

Silva comes in off a loss to C.B. Dollaway in September, a fight he took as a late replacement to an injured Dan Miller. A purple belt in BJJ under Renzo Gracie, Silva has said in the build up to the fight that he's willing to stand-and-bang with Leben.

Apparently, the contents of Silva's cranium can be questioned as well.

Amir Sadollah (2-1-0) vs. Brad Blackburn (17-9-1, 1 NC)

Once again, Amir Sadollah has a very important fight in front of him. His post-TUF debut lasted only 29 seconds courtesy of a Johny Hendricks flurry, and while he bounced back and looked solid in beating Phil Baroni at UFC 106, it was Phil Baroni.

Now the former nurse and Ultimate Fighter gets a tough test in former IFL competitor Brad Blackburn. A win moves him up the ladder and validates some of the promise he showed early and the faith the UFC has shown as of late, while a loss could be catastrophic.

All of which makes Blackburn even more dangerous. The guy has nothing to prove and nothing to lose. He's 3-0 in the UFC and signed a new contract prior to injuring his knee, so a pink slip isn't in his future. A win moves him up the rankings, while a loss isn't all that bad, considering he's been out of action for almost seven months and it came to UFC darling Sadollah after all.

This bout has "trap fight" written all over it for Sadollah.

Tom Lawlor (6-1-0. 1 NC) vs. Aaron Simpson (6-0-0)

Simpson is undefeated, hyper-athletic and very well-respected by his Arizona Combat Sports teammates. He's looked great thus far in his UFC career and is in better shape at 35 than I have been in at any point in my life.

Remembered for his time on TUF 8 and his appearance at the UFC 100 Weigh-Ins as "The Just Bleed Guy," Lawlor is an unquestioned character who doesn't get enough credit for his talents in the cage. That's what happens when you walk out to your last fight with Seth Petruzelli on a leash and "Who Let the Dogs Out?" blaring through the arena.

Efrain Escudero (13-0-0) vs. Evan Dunham (9-0-0)

Someone is leaving Virginia with their first career loss, and opinions are split on whether it will be the lightweight winner of TUF 8 or the kid from Oregon who now trains with Xtreme Couture.

Escudero has solid wrestling chops and comes from an emerging camp, the MMA Lab in Arizona, home of WEC star Ben Henderson among others. He showed power in knocking Cole Miller to the canvas before finishing him with some serious ground-and-pound in his last bout, and admitted to wanting to fight Ghandi when we spoke earlier in the week.

Evan Dunham made a splash in his UFC debut, clocking veteran Per Eklund, and followed it up with a Unanimous Decision over Marcus Aurelio. Dunham probably has the edge when the fight is standing, and having a training camp filled with top-quality lightweight wrestlers like Gray Maynard and Tyson Griffin certainly won't hurt his chances in this fight.

Gray Maynard (8-0-0, 1 NC) vs. Nathan Diaz (11-4-0)

Not only is this a rematch of their semifinal battle from TUF 5, but an impressive performance from Maynard all but guarantees his a shot at BJ Penn's Lightweight title. Of course, all UFC guarantees need to be consumed with numerous grains of salt.

Diaz is a very talented fighter and highly opportunistic; if you give him an opening to sink in a submission, your night is over. That's what happened the first time around for these two, just as it did for Melvin Guillard when Diaz submitted him at Fight Night 19.

But the Gray Maynard who lost to Nate Diaz on the Ultimate Fighter isn't the same guy who stands across from him on Monday. Since that time, Maynard has greatly improved his boxing and become more aware of how to use his outstanding wrestling and strength to dictate where fights take place.

He's also beaten far better competition than Diaz, having earned wins over Roger Huerta, Jim Miller and Frankie Edgar, while Diaz was beaten by Clay Guida and Joe Stevenson before stopping "The Young Assassin."





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Fight Week Previews: Sherk vs. Edgar

(For every major MMA fight card, Keyboard Kimura will provide a detailed breakdown of the fights on the Main Card, followed by a Saturday predictions piece.)

Sean "The Muscle Shark" Sherk (37-3-1) vs. Frankie "The Answer" Edgar (9-1)

This could easily end up being the most entertaining fight of the night.

Sherk has gone the distance in four of his last five fights, including two five round battles. Edgar, on the other hand, has lasted until the final bell in three straight and four of his five UFC tilts. These two lightweights have been in three "Fight of the Night" bouts in their UFC careers and this could certainly earn them a little extra pocket money.

For whatever reason, I never seem to think of Sean Sherk as part of the upper echelon of fighters. In reality, the guy has three career losses and they came at the hands of Matt Hughes during the height of his welterweight dominance, Georges St-Pierre after nearly two years without a loss and his most recent defeat at the hands of B.J. Penn. That's it.

Edgar is a guy that I have liked from the beginning, in part because his last name and my first name are one in the same. Silly, I know, but whatever. Monikers aside, Frankie Edgar's willingness to stand and trade and his skills on the mat brought me from a simple "his name is my name" admiration to being a full-fledged fan.

Normally, you could turn to common opponents as a potential indicator of who might get their hand raised at the end of the night, but these two guys are just too similar to allow that.

Both have fought Tyson Griffin and Hermes Franca, which both coming away with Unanimous Decision victories in each fight.

On the experience front and sheer level of competition, you clearly have to give the edge to Sherk, the former UFC Lightweight champ with more than 40 fights under his belt including numerous championship rounds.

But perhaps there is something to be said for youthful exuberance. The 27-year-old Edgar's only loss came at the hands of Gray Maynard, a fighter some including myself feel will be a world champion in the future.

You'll have to wait until Saturday for my prediction, just as you will for the fight. One thing is for sure though, no matter who you got in this tilt, you're in for a great show.
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