Punch Drunk Predictions

The week of Main Card previews is over and tonight is Fight Night.

Over the last three weeks, I've spent a great deal of time waxing philosophical about Mixed Martial Arts and trying to show how much knowledge and insight I have about the sport. But anyone can talk a good game. Now it's time to show you the skills.

For every major fight card - UFC, Affliction, WEC, Strikeforce, DREAM, etc. - I'll break out the Punch Drunk Predictions, keeping tabs on my record as we go. This is something I started back in the days of covering MMA at The Love of Sports, where I had amassed a 50-34 record through UFC 96.

But this is a new site and we're starting fresh with UFC 98 tonight in Las Vegas.

Preliminary Card

"Diamond" Dave Kaplan vs. George Roop
No one really cares about this fight and it will surely be the last fight under the UFC banner for whoever comes out on the losing end. Kaplan could probably score a win, but I don't see him sticking to any kind of game plan. Roop has a decent ground game and should come away with a win.
Prediction: Roop via submission

Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida vs. Brandon Wolff
Yoshida needs an impressive win to remove the memory of Josh Koscheck knocking him silly from our collective memory and he has a perfect opportunity against the soon to be former UFC fighter Wolff.
Prediction: Yoshida via submission

"The Polish Experiment" Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Andre Gusmao
I've read a lot over this last week about Gusmao having been the class of the IFL and Soszynski being a notch below the Brazilian in those days. But I'm not one to live in the past. The monster from Winnipeg is 2-0 inside the Octagon, including forcing former WEC champ Brian Stann to tap in the first round just last month.
Prediction: Soszynski via submission

"The Filipino Assassin" Phillipe Nover vs. Kyle Bradley
Nover was one of the stars of TUF 8 and it was considered a mild upset when he lost the lightweight finale to Efrain Escudero. Now it's time to get him back on track and remind people why Dana White was comparing him to Anderson Silva. Enjoy the unemployment line, Kyle. Three losses in a row... you're out.
Prediction: Nover via TKO

Pat "HD" Berry vs. "The Thrashing Machine" Tim Hague
Berry is being groomed as a contender in the heavyweight division. Hague is simply a large body able to stand in front of Berry until the barrage of leg kicks chops him to the ground. This should be a complete squash match.
Prediction: Berry via TKO

Brock Larson vs. Mike "Quicksand" Pyle
I like Brock Larson a lot and his string of first round victories has him climbing back up the welterweight ladder. Unfortunately, Chris Wilson would have been a better opponent. Pyle may be making his UFC debut, but he's a seasoned vet who has simply been in the ring with better competition over the years.
Prediction: Pyle via submission

Main Card

Sean "The Muscle Shark" Sherk vs. "The Answer" Frankie Edgar
I'll really be pulling for Edgar and not just because of the shared name. He's a really likable fighter and I can't really stand Sean Sherk. But Sherk is the pick here. He just has too complete a game and too much experience.
Prediction: Sherk via decision

Dan Miller vs. Chael Sonnen
While Sonnen has yet to impress me in any of his fights, Miller is a rising star with a knack for winning fights. Whether it be submitted less skilled opponents like Jake Rosholt and Rob Kimmons or grinding out a decision over a vet like Matt Horwich, Miller finds a way to get the job done. It doesn't hurt that Sonnen seems to enjoy being put in submissions holds either.
Prediction: Miller via submission

Drew "The Massacre" McFedries vs. "The Professor X" Xavier Foupa-Pokam
There is only one way McFedries wins this fight and it's the same rule that applies to all his fights: if he connects with a bomb, this thing is done. That being said, I don't see it happening. Foupa-Pokam will know to stay inside McFedries' range and get this thing to the ground, where it will become completely academic.
Prediction: Foupa-Pokam via submission

Matt Hughes vs. Matt "The Terror" Serra
They're both old, they're both coming off injuries and they're both pretty much irrelevant in the welterweight division any more. That being said, it's going to be fun to see the hate in Matt Serra's eyes as he stands across from Hughes. It will also be fun seeing Hughes slam Serra to the mat and grind out one final win before induction in to the UFC Hall of Fame at UFC 100.
Prediction: Hughes via decision

"Sugar" Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida
Regardless of outcome, this is going to be a great fight. All the people who "boo" shouldn't be allowed to call themselves fight fans. As difficult as Machida is to hit and as awkward as his attacks may come, I see Evans using his wrestling to bring this to the ground and his fast hands and footwork to pick his spots well when they're standing up.
Prediction: Evans via TKO
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Fight Week Previews: Evans vs. Machida

Ladies and Gentlemen, it's time for the Main Event of the evening!

"Sugar" Rashad Evans (13-0-1) versus Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida (14-0)

Unbeaten fighters squaring off for the title in the sport's deepest and toughest division is awesome. Mix in the uniqueness of both fighters and their styles and you have a fight that true fans should be drooling about watching.

A lot has been made about Lyoto Machida's style and rightfully so. Name me another fighter who has never lost a round on a judge's scorecard. The guy simply does not put himself in jeopardy and is one of the best counter strikers in the sport today.

But Evans is no slouch. This is a guy who came into the UFC as a wrestler and has developed his lightning quick hands into explosive weapons at 205. Did I forget to mention that he won Season 2 of The Ultimate Fighter at heavyweight? That takes talent. He's also shown to be an exceptional counter-puncher with the best footwork in the light heavyweight division.

Comparing opponents, Machida gets the advantage, as both have beaten Sam Hoger and Stephan Bonner, while Machida earned a win over Tito Ortiz to Evans' draw. But strength of opponents is another story.

In terms of quality of opponents overall, you have to decide if level of competition in the UFC is what you're after or overall career opposition. Strictly in the UFC, Evans wins hands down, having put together his three fight win streak at the expense of Michael Bisping, Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin, while Machida has fought Thiago Silva, Sokoudjou and David Heath to name three.

However, in totality, the edge goes to Machida, who counts wins over B.J. Penn and Rich Franklin amongst his pre-UFC triumphs. Now, the Penn win doesn't carry that much weight with me because B.J. has no business fighting someone that's 205, but the Franklin win was the only loss on Ace's record before he ran into Anderson Silva.

One place where I give Evans a distinct advantage is in his corner. There is no better training camp in the game than Jackson's Submission Fighting. Greg Jackson and Mike Winklejohn are two of the top trainers in the sport and the list of high caliber athletes who will have served as training partners for Evans leading into this fight cannot be matched.

Nothing against Machida's training routines, as they have proven extremely beneficial en route to his undefeated record, but something about rolling and sparring with Keith Jardine, GSP, Nate Marquardt and company every day sounds hard to beat to me.

But you'll have to wait until tomorrow for my full list of predictions.
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Fight Week Previews: Serra vs. Hughes

Earlier in the week, I wasn't really psyched about this fight. I mean, it's been two years in the making and that is a long time coming.

But now that Saturday is on the horizon and I've been scrutinizing the fight card a little more, this one is starting to intrigue me again.

Matt Serra (9-5) versus Matt Hughes (42-7)

There are no two ways about it - Matt Serra and Matt Hughes don't like each other and this one is to settle the score. It's also a battle between an automatic Hall of Famer and a guy who might very well be the most unlikely champion the UFC has ever had.

Both are coming off serious injuries so we'll call the time off factor a wash. And it's not like one had a bum arm and the other a broken foot or anything either; neck and back issues sidelined Serra, while Hughes had ligament damage after eating Thiago Alves' knee.

Hughes absolutely smashes Serra on the experience and strength of competition levels, having run up that impressive stretch of dominance during the formative years of the UFC.

Common opponents is an interesting avenue to travel, as both have wins over Chris Lytle, each has a loss to B.J. Penn (though Hughes also has a win) and both men have faced Georges St-Pierre more than once, with Serra 1-1 and Hughes 1-2.

For all the talk about Matt Serra's ground game, I can't remember seeing him execute a single submission. In fact, I can't remember him beating anyone of relevance other than GSP. While that does count for something, it is also looking more and more like one hell of a career-making punch.

On the other hand, I can show you video after video of Hughes slamming opponents to the mat, sinking in submissions and pounding his way to victory.

But I can't shake the thought of that GSP punch. As much as Hughes has the better pedigree and everything comparatively to his advantage, Serra has the devestating knockout that everyone remembers and you know he's going to be swinging for the fences.

The rational side of me thinks Hughes uses his experience and smarts to waer down the smaller man and score a decision.

The gunslinger in me thinks Serra lands a haymaker and ends Hughes' career on a very sour note.

I'll tell you which side I'm going with on Saturday.


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Fight Week Previews: McFedries vs. Foupa-Pokam

Drew McFedries (7-5) versus Xavier Foupa-Pokam (20-10)

Am I the only one thoroughly confused by this fight being on the Main Card?

While I understand it has KO of the Night potential written all over it, shouldn't it at least be relegated to the fifth spot in the order? Doesn't a former champion like Sean Sherk deserve to fight after these two?

Instead of breaking down this fight - which would take no time whatsoever - let's instead spend a little time wondering why Drew McFedries has a job with the UFC.

Does the guy have pictures of Dana White and a donkey or something? He's lost four of six and two in a row and truthfully, he hasn't beaten anyone of note. Sorry Jordan Radev, Marvin Eastman and Alessio Sakara fans, but you're fighters aren't really noteworthy.

Sure, the excitement value is there, as McFedries hasn't been outside of the first round in any of his UFC fights, but shouldn't it be more about coming away with good fights and strong results more than getting lit up early and often?

Whatever...

His opponent, the above pictured Xavier Foupa-Pokam was riding a seven fight winning streak heading into UFC 97 in Montreal where Denis Kang scored a unanimous decision victory. While "The Professor X" has more time spent inside the ring-slash-cage, he's winless against anyone that I have heard of, save for Kyacey Uscola.

Beating the bejesus out of a bunch of scrubs is one thing; when he's stepped into the ring with a known entity, he's lost to Martin Kampmann, Paul Daley, Ninja Rua and now Kang. Not that I see Drew McFedries being near the same level as those competitors, but at least he's been around the block a time or two.

Truthfully, this is going to be an explosive fight, simply because all Drew McFedries fights seem to be explosive. It won't get out of the first round and someone is going to get stopped.

Unfortunately, I really don't care which one of these guys ends up on his back and which one gets their hand raised.
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Fight Week Previews: Miller vs. Sonnen

Another day, another fight on the Main Card of UFC 98 to put under the microscope. This time, IFL veteran Dan Miller steps in to the cage with former WEC standout Chael Sonnen.

Time to break it down.

Dan Miller (11-1, 1 NC) versus Chael Sonnen (23-10-1)

Chael Sonnen has been around the sport for a long time. So long, in fact, that he was a member of Team Quest before it was even called Team Quest.

He's fought an impressive list of competitors in various weight classes, having stepped in with light heavyweights like "Babalu" Sobral and Trevor Prangley, as well as matching up with known middleweight entities like Paulo Filho and Demian Maia.

While Miller is not a newcomer to the cage, he certainly doesn't have the time in the ring the veteran Sonnen does, as this will mark the 14th fight of his professional career. That being said, experience isn't the only thing that counts when the cage door closes.

For starters, Miller hasn't lost in three years, during which time he dominated in the IFL and has put together three straight wins under the UFC banner. Included in those fights is an early submission win over highly-touted Jake Rosholt and a decision win over tough Matt Horwich.

Sonnen, on the other hand, dropped his last contest inside the first round to jiu jitsu ace Demian Maia. While that loss was preceded by two wins, the Paulo Fihlo that fought Sonnen at the close of the WEC middleweight division was far from the dominant Fihlo who had previously been unbeaten.

Truth be told, that WEC history of Sonnen's scares me, as I have yet to see anyone make the transition from what can only have been considered the UFC's minor leagues to the big stage successfully. Outside of Steve Cantwell's initial win, I can't think of one guy who has come over and had his hand raised.

Then there is Miller, who seems to do nothing but win. Four straight and ten consecutive fights without a loss if you're counting. The only blemish is a No Contest against Mike Guerin at Ring of Combat 18 two years ago.

While there is sure to be some game plan changes for Miller now that Sonnen has replaced original opponent and perennially injured Yushin Okami, the switch came early enough that there shouldn't be any miscues from Camp Miller.

Same goes for Sonnen, but he knew exactly what he was getting into when he faced off against Demian Maia too and still he was caught in a triangle and forced to tap by the middle of the first round.

Final prediction Saturday, but I think you can see which way I'm leaning.

Continue reading...

Fight Week Previews: Sherk vs. Edgar

(For every major MMA fight card, Keyboard Kimura will provide a detailed breakdown of the fights on the Main Card, followed by a Saturday predictions piece.)

Sean "The Muscle Shark" Sherk (37-3-1) vs. Frankie "The Answer" Edgar (9-1)

This could easily end up being the most entertaining fight of the night.

Sherk has gone the distance in four of his last five fights, including two five round battles. Edgar, on the other hand, has lasted until the final bell in three straight and four of his five UFC tilts. These two lightweights have been in three "Fight of the Night" bouts in their UFC careers and this could certainly earn them a little extra pocket money.

For whatever reason, I never seem to think of Sean Sherk as part of the upper echelon of fighters. In reality, the guy has three career losses and they came at the hands of Matt Hughes during the height of his welterweight dominance, Georges St-Pierre after nearly two years without a loss and his most recent defeat at the hands of B.J. Penn. That's it.

Edgar is a guy that I have liked from the beginning, in part because his last name and my first name are one in the same. Silly, I know, but whatever. Monikers aside, Frankie Edgar's willingness to stand and trade and his skills on the mat brought me from a simple "his name is my name" admiration to being a full-fledged fan.

Normally, you could turn to common opponents as a potential indicator of who might get their hand raised at the end of the night, but these two guys are just too similar to allow that.

Both have fought Tyson Griffin and Hermes Franca, which both coming away with Unanimous Decision victories in each fight.

On the experience front and sheer level of competition, you clearly have to give the edge to Sherk, the former UFC Lightweight champ with more than 40 fights under his belt including numerous championship rounds.

But perhaps there is something to be said for youthful exuberance. The 27-year-old Edgar's only loss came at the hands of Gray Maynard, a fighter some including myself feel will be a world champion in the future.

You'll have to wait until Saturday for my prediction, just as you will for the fight. One thing is for sure though, no matter who you got in this tilt, you're in for a great show.
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Hype Is Not Enough

Give Dana White and the boys at the UFC credit. They're doing everything they can to make UFC 98 seem like an event that everyone who loves the sport should be amped to see. Unfortunately, I don't think that is the case.

Title fights featuring two undefeated competitors don't come around all that often, yet this one still doesn't hold my interest. How can the UFC expect fans to get behind Lyoto Machida as a great fighter when it was only through an injury to Rampage Jackson that he landed this title shot in the first place?

Outside of his fight with Thiago Silva, most Machida matches are technically sound, excitement-lacking events where he picks an opponent apart without taking any damage. From a fundamental standpoint, he's outstanding, but I don't pay $50 for a display of sound fundamentals. It's the same reason I can acknowledge Tim Duncan's greatness but wouldn't pay a dime to watch him up close.

Then you have the long overdue Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra grudge match. I think there are three words that accurately sum up the feelings of many MMA fans on this one: We Don't Care. It would have been interesting if it happened following Season 6 of TUF like it was supposed to, but we're more than a year removed and neither has done anything of note to make me want to watch. Sure, Hughes is a legend and a Hall of Famer, but his days of dominance are done and Serra is around solely because he knocked GSP out a couple years back.

Normally, the undercard is stacked with fights that I actually want to see, sometimes more than the big name bouts. This time, not so much.

Outside of Sean Sherk vs. Frankie Edgar, I can't say there is much I'm looking forward to. Chael Sonnen against Dan Miller will be a good tilt, but not one I want to pay to see and watching Drew McFedries inside the Octagon only makes me angry, seeing as he's still employed by the UFC while Canucks Jason McDonald and David Loiseau received their pink slips.

There is also rumblings that the winner of the Evans-Machida tilt might end up as a coach on Season 10 of TUF opposite #1 Light Heavyweight contender Rampage Jackson. While the show is certainly a great catalyst for building interest in a fighter and upcoming fights, we've seen Rampage as a coach and while Evans could surprise a few people, Machida doesn't strike me as the guy you want on camera for an extended period of time.

It's been a long time since there was a UFC card that didn't capture my attention. Now there are two in a row, as UFC 99 in Germany does nothing for me either.

Basically, I'm counting down the days until UFC 100.

65 to go...

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No Other Options

Dana White and the UFC hype machine painted themselves into a corner and the only foreseeable way out was to put together a fight that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

What do you do with a fighter you promote as the best pound-for-pound mixed martial artist in the world when he seems to be uninterested in fighting to the best of his abilities? You give him his second fight at light heavyweight and make it against a fan favorite and former champion.

And so, Anderson Silva versus Forrest Griffin at UFC 101 was born.

Silva has been completely underwhelming in wins over Patrick Cote and Thales Leites, but what purpose does a move to 205 serve? Should he win, what comes next? The light heavyweight title picture is already a crowded affair and adding Anderson Silva to the mix only muddies the waters more.

Regardless of who wins the upcoming Rashad Evans/Lyoto Machida title fight, the loser doesn't fall into oblivion, as it will be the first loss for either competitor. Machida would have to work his way into another shot should he lose, but Evans would be, at most, two fights away from another shot at the strap. Of course, that logic brings Rampage Jackson into the question.

Since losing the title to Forrest Griffin at UFC 86, Rampage has disposed of top tier contenders Wanderlei Silva and Keith Jardine, giving him a valid claim to the #1 contender spot. But what of the original Ultimate Fighter?

Griffin falls into the same former champion lineage as Jackson, with this fight against Silva being his first since dropping the light heavyweight title to Evans at Ultimate 2008. Beating the "best pound-for-pound fighter in the world" would certainly make Griffin #1-A in the title picture, potentially setting up an outstanding rematch with Rampage.

Where would that leave Silva though? A loss removes all serious interest in Anderson Silva fighting at 205, as he would fall behind the aforementioned contenders and be faced with the prospect of fights with the likes of Keith Jardine and Rich Franklin. Sure, he's still got the middleweight belt, but he's cleaned out the division and seems bored fighting at 185.

That being said, Silva's destruction of James Irvin was impressive enough to merit the step up in competition and if the Anderson Silva who tore through the middleweight division shows up inside the cage, there is no reason to believe another win at 205 would be far behind.

Two wins, including one over a former champion, and a lot of name recognition seems like it would be enough to put "The Spider" into the title picture. Except that there is no way he would ever fight Lyoto Machida, should "The Dragon" defeat Evans later this month.

He'd have beaten a legitimate title contender and have no where to go, except into another fight that would only further muddle the murky light heavyweight title picture or back down to 185 where he seems to have no interest in putting on a good fight.

While this is certainly a fight that fans - myself included - are very excited to see, no matter how it plays out, the UFC is left with far more questions than answers and that is never a good thing. Continue reading...